Regional Outlook — TAS1: Tuesday 26 May 2026

The spot price in Tasmania sits at $87.18/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, a notable step down from the sustained $100–$105/MWh band that characterised most of the past 24 hours. Total demand is 1,149 MW, easing from a morning peak of around 1,400 MW observed earlier in the dispatch window. The sharpest price event over the period was a spike to $449.16/MWh at approximately 09:35 AEST on 26 May, which unwound quickly over the following half-hour as conditions normalised. A secondary elevation to $150.04/MWh occurred at 06:00 AEST today before prices retreated to the current sub-$90/MWh level.

The generation mix is running entirely on hydro and wind. Hydro is contributing 1,067 MW and wind 149 MW, for a combined 1,216 MW against a demand of 1,149 MW — the surplus consistent with Basslink export into Victoria. Gas OCGT sits at 0 MW. Carbon intensity is 0 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at 100%, a position that has held without interruption across every recorded interval in the past 24 hours. Today's overcast conditions (100% cloud cover, 12.5°C) suppress solar potential to zero, so the full renewable contribution is sourced from hydro and wind.

Pre-dispatch forecasts point to a clear upward price trajectory through the coming hours. The 07:00 AEST half-hour is forecast at $116.43/MWh, the 07:30 interval at $116.71/MWh, and the 08:00 AEST period is tracking toward the $165–$172/MWh range across multiple forecast runs. The 08:30 AEST window has consistent forecasts in the $150–$174/MWh band. This pattern suggests evening demand build combined with potential Basslink flow constraints will push prices materially above current levels within two to three hours. Participants with flexible load should note the current price window may be short-lived.

One market notice with direct operational relevance is active for today: AEMO will enable Murraylink dynamic rating forecasting in pre-dispatch and PASA from 10:00 AEST this morning (Market Notice 144142), activating constraint equations VSML\_RAT\_LIM\_DYN and SVML\_RAT\_LIM\_DYN. While Murraylink is a VIC–SA interconnector, changes to its modelled transfer limits can flow through to dispatch outcomes on the T-V-MNSP1 (Basslink) interconnector via portfolio rebalancing effects. Separately, the EMMS datacentre transfer completed overnight (CHG0109708) with no reported ongoing impacts to market systems.