Regional Outlook — SA1: Tuesday 26 May 2026

The SA1 spot price sits at $170.44/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 1,447 MW. Reviewing the past 24 hours, prices were elevated through the early morning hours (13:10–14:00 AEST), where multiple dispatch intervals hit $257.83/MWh, before easing through the mid-morning solar window and touching a day low of $58/MWh at 22:00 AEST. The afternoon and evening have seen a steady climb back into the $170–$250/MWh band, with a spike to $250.02/MWh at 06:10 AEST. The 24-hour volume-weighted average sits in the $140–$150/MWh range, placing the current price modestly above that trend as the grid moves into the morning demand ramp.

The current generation mix totals approximately 1,062 MW of dispatched supply. Gas CCGT is contributing the largest share at 377.58 MW, followed closely by gas OCGT at 351.48 MW. Wind is generating 295.5 MW, and battery storage is providing 37.7 MW of net output. Solar is contributing 0 MW, consistent with the pre-dawn timestamp and tonight's 100% cloud cover at 9.9°C. Renewable penetration stands at 31.37%, down from an overnight high of 65.97% recorded around 00:00 AEST when wind was carrying a larger proportion of the load. Carbon intensity is currently 0.3892 tCO2/MWh, having risen steadily from a low of 0.204 tCO2/MWh during the midday wind-heavy period. Today's weather outlook shows partial cloud clearing (45% average cover) with a max of 18.1°C, which should support moderate solar output during business hours but wind potential remains very low at 0.5 average — traders should not expect a repeat of yesterday's renewable penetration highs.

Pre-dispatch forecasts point to a firming price trajectory through the next two hours. The 07:00 AEST half-hour is forecast at $207.10/MWh, easing slightly to $195.08/MWh for the 07:30 AEST interval, before re-strengthening to $248–$251/MWh for the 08:00 AEST interval across multiple forecast runs. The 08:30 AEST interval is currently forecast in the $138–$250/MWh range depending on the run, reflecting genuine dispatch uncertainty as the morning demand peak builds. Demand is expected to climb toward the 1,800–2,000 MW range during the business morning, based on prior-day patterns, which will place additional pressure on the gas fleet given the low wind outlook.

Two market notices are directly relevant to SA1 today. AEMO's constraints notice (144142) confirms that Murraylink dynamic rating constraints — equations VSML_RAT_LIM_DYN and SVML_RAT_LIM_DYN — are being activated in pre-dispatch and PASA at 10:00 AEST this morning. This change modifies the formulation of Murraylink transfer limits and may affect the V-SA interconnector's import/export capacity at the margin; traders with SA exposure should review updated pre-dispatch constraint outputs after 10:00 AEST. Additionally, the Tailem Bend 275 k