Regional Outlook — SA1: Wednesday 8 July 2026
South Australia's spot price sits at $130.44/MWh at 20:25 AEST, sitting well below the volatility seen earlier today. The region experienced an extreme price spike overnight, with prices surging from a $100-200/MWh band through the early morning into a peak of $16,970.86/MWh at 09:40 AEST, before easing back through the $300-800/MWh range by mid-morning and settling into the current $100-180/MWh band through the afternoon and evening. Demand has eased alongside prices, from a morning peak above 2,000 MW to 1,548 MW currently.
The generation mix at the latest interval (20:30 AEST) shows wind contributing 562.87 MW, gas CCGT at 345.23 MW, gas OCGT at 452.68 MW, and battery output negligible at 0.24 MW, with solar at zero given the evening timeframe. Renewable penetration sits at 41.37%, having ranged widely today from a low near 13% during the overnight hours (when wind output was minimal and gas plant carried the bulk of load) up to a peak above 57% yesterday evening. Carbon intensity currently reads 0.3405 tCO2/MWh, tracking the inverse of renewable share — it peaked near 0.49 tCO2/MWh during the low-wind overnight window and dropped to 0.2575 tCO2/MWh during this afternoon's higher-wind, higher-solar period.
Predispatch forecasts point to renewed volatility overnight and into tomorrow morning. Prices are expected to lift to $244.90/MWh by 21:00 AEST, spike to $448.46/MWh around 22:30 AEST, and again to $448.27/MWh near 23:30 AEST, before easing to a low near $101-138/MWh in the 04:00-06:00 AEST window on 9 July. A further ramp is forecast from 06:30 AEST tomorrow, climbing through $262-331/MWh into the 07:00-08:30 AEST period and holding in the $280-330/MWh band through mid-morning, consistent with tightening reserve margins during low-wind conditions (wind potential forecast at just 0.4% tomorrow). Traders should note the identified low-cost load windows between 01:00 and 06:30 AEST tomorrow, averaging $108-139/MWh with savings of up to $340/MWh versus peak pricing.
On notices, no active LOR conditions curr