Regional Outlook — QLD1: Tuesday 26 May 2026

Queensland's spot price sits at $144.50/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with demand at 6,329 MW. This is a step down from the intraday peak period that saw intervals hit $231.73/MWh around 20:55 AEST and multiple spikes above $190/MWh through the late afternoon and evening. The 24-hour price trend shows a clear overnight trough — dropping below $85/MWh in the early hours — before climbing through the morning peak to a sustained band of $130–$145/MWh since roughly 05:00 AEST. Today's conditions are shaped by a completely overcast sky (100% cloud cover) and near-zero wind potential at just 4.2 km/h, suppressing variable renewable output during what would otherwise be a solar and wind contribution window.

The current generation mix is dominated by black coal at 4,981 MW, accounting for approximately 73% of the 6,820 MW total dispatched output. Gas OCGT contributes 780 MW (11.4%), batteries are discharging at 691 MW (10.1%), wind is generating 226 MW (3.3%), hydro is running at 143 MW (2.1%), and solar is producing a negligible 0.11 MW — consistent with pre-dawn conditions. Renewable penetration sits at 15.53% at the current interval, a material decline from the overnight peak of ~31% seen around 10:55–11:55 AEST (midnight to 1 AM local time) when overnight wind output was stronger relative to total demand. Carbon intensity is 0.717 tCO2/MWh, having tracked as high as 0.781 tCO2/MWh during the early evening when battery and hydro reserves were being conserved and coal was carrying the bulk of load growth. The weather outlook for today shows 96% average cloud cover and minimal wind potential, meaning solar will contribute little until cloud clears later in the week — not expected meaningfully until 29–30 May.

Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST trading period point to prices in the $133–$145/MWh range, consistent with current market levels. The most recent forecast for the 07:30 AEST interval sits at $143.93/MWh, and the 08:00 AEST interval is pegged at $138.97/MWh. Forecasts beyond that are thinner but the load window data shows prices easing into the $90–$105/MWh range across the overnight window from 08:30–11:00 AEST (late morning UTC), suggesting the market anticipates demand softening as the working day progresses toward the mid-morning lull. The persistent $130–$145/MWh band through this morning's peak is consistent with tight gas and battery dispatch economics when coal is carrying near-maximum baseload share.

The most operationally relevant active market notice for Queensland today is AEMO's constraint notice (MN 144142) flagging that the Murraylink dynamic rating forecast model will be enabled in predispatch and PASA from 10:00 AEST this morning — activating constraint equations VSML_RAT_LIM_DYN and SVML_RAT_LIM_DYN. While this primarily affects the VIC–SA interconnector flow limits, it has downstream implications for NEM-wide dispatch optimisation that can influence QLD–NSW