NEM Overview: Tuesday 26 May 2026

South Australia leads NEM spot prices at $170.44/MWh, with NSW at $161.92/MWh, QLD and VIC both around $144/MWh, and Tasmania the clear outlier at $87.18/MWh. The SA premium reflects a combination of elevated demand relative to local supply and heavy reliance on interconnector flows from Victoria — the V-SA link is running at its export limit of 436.65 MW and is binding, meaning SA has no additional headroom to pull more from VIC at current network conditions. The NSW-QLD1 interconnector is also binding, with 583.74 MW flowing south into NSW, pushing QLD prices down relative to NSW. VIC is exporting 488 MW north to NSW via VIC1-NSW1, which remains unbound with capacity to spare.

NEM-wide renewable penetration sits at 32.7% per the gridIQ score, though the regional picture is uneven. Tasmania is 100% renewable at this interval — 1,067 MW hydro plus 149 MW wind serving 1,149 MW of demand. SA reaches 31.4% renewable (295 MW wind, 38 MW battery), with gas OCGT and CCGT making up the balance of its 1,447 MW load. NSW renewable penetration is 20.2%, led by 1,019 MW hydro and 399 MW wind against a 7,833 MW demand task; solar is effectively zero across the NEM at this hour (06:30 AEST), as expected. VIC is lowest at 17.2% renewable — 1,017 MW wind set against 4,666 MW brown coal and 266 MW gas OCGT serving 5,392 MW. QLD sits at 15.5% renewable, with 690 MW battery discharge and 780 MW gas OCGT supplementing 4,981 MW black coal at peak morning ramp.

Grid stress is elevated at 66.5/100. The most operationally significant item active today is AEMO's planned activation of Murraylink dynamic rating constraints (VSML_RAT_LIM_DYN and SVML_RAT_LIM_DYN) at 10:00 AEST this morning, which will affect pre-dispatch and PASA formulation on the V-S-MNSP1 interconnector — that link is currently passing 35.55 MW SA-to-VIC and is already at its binding export limit. Traders with exposure to SA or VIC pre-dispatch should note that rated capacity on Murraylink may shift intraday once dynamic constraints are live, potentially altering the SA price outcome through the middle of the day. The EMMS datacentre transfer completed overnight without apparent market impact.

Today's outlook is shaped by heavy cloud cover across all regions (89–100%) suppressing solar through most of the day, with SA forecast to partially clear to 45% cloud cover and capture modest solar potential this afternoon. Wind potential remains low across NSW, VIC, and SA for today, so generation mix is unlikely to shift materially from current settings until the evening ramp eases demand. With no Low Reserve Conditions currently declared and MT PASA showing no adequacy concerns as of 19 May, the near-term supply picture is adequate — but the binding V-SA interconnector and the Murraylink constraint activation at 10:00 AEST are the two items to watch for intraday price movement, particularly in SA.