Commodity Demand — VIC1: Tuesday 26 May 2026

Victoria's spot price sits at $144.06/MWh at 06:30 AEST with demand at 5,392 MW — a combination that reflects the early stages of the evening demand ramp. The price trajectory over the past hour tells the real story: demand climbed from 4,937 MW at 06:00 AEST with prices around $121/MWh, accelerating through $163–165/MWh as demand crossed 5,200–5,300 MW at 06:20–06:25 AEST, before easing back to $144/MWh as the rate of demand growth slowed. That $40+/MWh swing across a 400 MW demand increment illustrates the steep supply curve Victoria is operating on tonight, with brown coal contributing 4,666 MW and gas OCGT at 266 MW providing the marginal capacity. Solar is at zero, wind is contributing 1,017 MW, and with 100% cloud cover and a heating demand index of 4.2, tonight's load profile is firmly winter-driven.

Today's demand profile traced a classic winter weekday shape. Demand peaked near 6,875 MW around 08:00–08:25 AEST (17:00–17:25 local time equivalent in the data, noting the UTC offset), with prices constrained to $74–88/MWh during that shoulder period before midday price compression set in — spot fell as low as $8.94/MWh between 16:00 and 17:00 AEST (01:00–02:00 UTC). The midday trough saw demand bottom near 4,262–4,300 MW with sub-$15/MWh pricing across multiple consecutive intervals, a pattern consistent with daytime solar suppression even in late May. The evening ramp commenced around 05:00 AEST (19:00 UTC), with demand lifting from 4,262 MW and prices stepping sharply from $8.94/MWh to $121/MWh as 5,000 MW was breached — a price sensitivity of roughly $55/MWh per 1,000 MW of additional demand at that point on the curve.

The near-term forecast is unambiguous: pre-dispatch shows $196/MWh for the 07:00 AEST interval and $197/MWh for 07:30 AEST, with the most recent forecasts for those windows revised sharply upward from earlier estimates around $130/MWh. This upward revision over the past two forecast cycles indicates demand is tracking above initial expectations for the evening peak. With temperature holding at 13.8°C, full overcast, and wind potential near zero, there is no weather-driven relief in the near term. The Koorangie–Wemen 220 kV line outage flagged in Market Notice 144141 — which invoked constraint set V-KOWE affecting VIC1–NSW1 and other interconnectors — limits import flexibility from NSW, reducing the ability to moderate prices through inter-regional flows. Demand is forecast to continue rising through the 07:00–08:00 AEST window before the typical weekday peak plateau, and prices in the $190–200/MWh range are consistent with where the market is currently pricing that period.