Commodity Demand — TAS1: Tuesday 26 May 2026

Tasmania sits at $87.18/MWh with demand at 1,149 MW as of 06:30 AEST — a notable softening from the $103–$106/MWh range that anchored prices through the morning peak demand window of 1,380–1,402 MW (07:30–08:30 AEST). The price-demand relationship today has been textbook: as demand climbed through the morning ramp from around 1,150 MW at 04:00 AEST toward the 1,400 MW peak, prices held in a tight $101–$103/MWh band. The subsequent demand pull-back through the midday trough — bottoming near 943 MW around 02:05 AEST — saw prices ease to the $87–$88/MWh level now clearing. The overnight elevated period (09:35–03:35 AEST) where prices ran $120–$175/MWh was demand-independent, reflecting a supply-side or interconnector constraint event including a spike to $449/MWh at 09:35 AEST, not a demand surge — demand during that window sat in the 1,200–1,215 MW range.

The evening demand ramp is the key price risk for today's remaining intervals. Forecast pre-dispatch prices for 07:00 AEST (21:00 UTC) sit at $116/MWh on the most recent run, up sharply from the $88–$91/MWh range forecast just two hours earlier, suggesting the dispatch engine is now pricing in a tighter supply stack as demand climbs back toward the 1,150–1,250 MW range through the evening. The 07:30 AEST target carries a forecast of $116–$117/MWh, and the 08:00 AEST interval is forecast in the $165–$172/MWh range across multiple pre-dispatch runs, indicating a material step-up as demand approaches the 1,300+ MW zone typical of Tasmanian winter evenings. Temperature sits at 12.5°C with 100% cloud cover and a heating demand index of 5.5, consistent with sustained residential and commercial heating load through the evening.

Demand trajectory from here points firmly upward. The daily weather outlook shows tomorrow's maximum of only 14.2°C under full cloud cover, supporting elevated heating load through the evening peak. The current 1,149 MW reading represents the post-midday-trough recovery phase; the data pattern from today shows demand typically adds 200–250 MW between the mid-afternoon low and the 07:00–09:00 AEST evening peak. At that demand level, the pre-dispatch forecasts of $165–$172/MWh for the 08:00 AEST window are credible. Traders and demand-response operators should note the $87/MWh window now available is likely the session low — load scheduling ahead of the 07:00–09:00 AEST ramp carries a meaningful price differential of $75–$85/MWh against evening peak exposure based on current pre-dispatch signals.