Commodity Demand — QLD1: Tuesday 26 May 2026

Queensland spot price sits at $144.50/MWh at 06:30 AEST with total demand at 6,329 MW, pulled back from an intra-period spike to $189.59/MWh at 06:20 AEST when demand briefly pushed through 6,270 MW on its way to the current read. The price-demand relationship across today's data is pronounced: demand troughed near 5,300 MW through the 02:00–03:00 AEST window with prices ranging $86–$104/MWh, then climbed steadily through the morning peak to 7,597 MW at 17:45 AEST where prices tracked $122–$134/MWh, before the evening ramp-up tightened supply margins and produced the sharper spikes seen between 06:15 and 06:25 AEST. The mid-morning period around 20:55–21:05 AEST (10:55–11:05 local) stands out with a $231.73/MWh print at 6,950 MW demand — the highest price in the dataset — consistent with afternoon solar fade compressing dispatchable headroom against sustained mid-level demand.

Today's demand trajectory follows a clear winter weekday profile. Demand bottomed around 5,300 MW in the early hours (16:00–17:00 AEST), built through the morning residential-commercial ramp to a day peak above 7,500 MW between 17:30 and 18:25 AEST, then moderated through the afternoon solar window to the low-to-mid 5,000s MW range. It is now re-ascending into the evening peak, with demand up roughly 400 MW over the past 30 minutes. Forecasts for the 07:00–08:30 AEST (21:00–22:30 UTC) window point to prices in the $133–$145/MWh range, with the most recent pre-dispatch run targeting $139.95/MWh at 07:00 AEST and $145.34/MWh at 07:30 AEST — consistent with demand continuing to rise as residential heating load consolidates and solar output remains near zero given 100% cloud cover and a temperature of 17.8°C.

Price sensitivity is elevated in the current demand band. Between 6,200 and 6,600 MW, prices have repeatedly tested the $133–$145/MWh range with episodic spikes to $170–$190/MWh when supply-side tightness coincides with demand surges — the $189.59/MWh print at 06:20 AEST being the most recent example. Battery discharge (691 MW) and gas OCGT (780 MW) are currently active, indicating peaking plant is already in the stack. With demand likely to press toward 6,500–6,800 MW over the next 60–90 minutes as the evening peak builds, the price floor sits near $133/MWh and any further demand step-up or generation shortfall carries asymmetric upside price risk. Overnight pre-dispatch forecasts had flagged the 07:00 AEST half-hour as high as $204/MWh, though the most recent run has moderated that to $140/MWh, suggesting supply offers have responded.

One demand-side factor worth noting from the market notices: AEMO directed a Queensland generator on 23