Commodity Demand — NSW1: Tuesday 26 May 2026

NSW spot price sits at **$161.92/MWh** at 06:30 AEST with demand at **7,833 MW** — a level that is rising sharply into the evening peak. The demand trajectory through today tells the clearest pricing story: the region troughed near 6,630 MW around 03:30–04:00 AEST when prices were contained in the $96–$113/MWh range, climbed through the morning peak to ~10,008 MW by 17:45 AEST where prices remained surprisingly subdued at $90–$98/MWh, then retreated through the afternoon solar shoulder to a daily low of ~6,733 MW around 02:00–02:30 AEST at $96–$111/MWh. The current demand of 7,833 MW represents a rapid evening ramp — up roughly 1,100 MW in the past 90 minutes — and prices are responding with force, jumping from $129/MWh at 06:00 AEST to $194.55/MWh at 06:20 AEST before settling at $161.92/MWh in the latest interval.

The price sensitivity to demand in this evening ramp is markedly asymmetric compared to the morning peak. Morning demand above 9,900 MW cleared at $80–$98/MWh, reflecting ample dispatchable capacity during daylight hours. This evening, demand at only 7,833 MW — more than 2,000 MW below the morning peak — is already printing prices 60–80% higher. The driver is the loss of solar output: generation from solar has collapsed to just **1.27 MW** with 100% cloud cover and no solar potential, removing a significant daytime suppression effect. Black coal is carrying **5,718 MW** and hydro **1,019 MW**, with wind contributing **399 MW**. Gas CCGT and OCGT are both at zero, leaving little flexible headroom as demand continues to climb.

Pre-dispatch forecasts are signalling significant upward price pressure ahead. The most recent forecast (06:31 AEST) prices the 07:00 AEST interval at **$231.72/MWh** and the 07:30 AEST interval also at **$231.72/MWh** — a step-change from forecasts issued earlier in the day that had 07:00 AEST as low as $97.67/MWh. This rapid upward revision in pre-dispatch, converging to a consistent $231.72/MWh signal across the 07:00–07:30 AEST window, indicates the dispatch engine is finding the supply stack tight as evening demand builds toward what historical patterns suggest could reach 8,500–9,000 MW within the next hour. Overnight forecasts for 07:30–08:00 AEST (AEST: 17:30–18:00 UTC+10) also point to the $183–$202/MWh range, suggesting elevated prices persist through the dinner-time demand plateau.

One market notice is directly relevant to today's price formation in NSW. AEMO's constraint notice (MN 144142) advises that Murraylink dynamic rating constraints — **VSML_RAT_LIM_DYN** and **SVML_RAT_LIM_DYN** — are being enabled at **10:00 AEST today**, affecting pre-dispatch