Regional Outlook — TAS1: Monday 25 May 2026
Tasmania's spot price sits at $106.12/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, up from a sustained floor of around $103.18–$103.20/MWh that held through most of the overnight and morning periods. The price stepped up progressively from $103.18 at 06:00 AEST through $104.12 and $105.12 before reaching the current level, tracking demand rising from a low of around 975 MW in the mid-afternoon to 1,192 MW now. The intraday low touched $87.06–$87.08/MWh in the early evening window (04:06–05:00 AEST), reflecting suppressed demand during Tasmania's shoulder period, while a brief spike to $143.17/MWh occurred at 20:10 AEST — an isolated dispatch interval that resolved quickly. The 24-hour average price sits in the $100–$102/MWh range based on the price history, placing the current $106.12/MWh modestly above that trend as the evening demand ramp takes hold.
The generation mix is entirely hydro and wind. Hydro is contributing 1,040.73 MW and wind 213.68 MW, with gas OCGT at 0 MW. Total scheduled generation of 1,254 MW is comfortably covering the 1,192 MW demand, with the balance available for export via Basslink to Victoria (T-V-MNSP1). Renewable penetration stands at 100% this interval, with a carbon intensity of 0 tCO2/MWh. This has been the case for the vast majority of the past 24 hours; the only deviation was a brief period during the morning peak (roughly 13:00–19:00 AEST) where intensity nudged up to 0.027–0.029 tCO2/MWh and renewable penetration dipped to approximately 95.5–96%, consistent with minor Basslink import flows or auxiliary load effects during high-demand intervals. The weather picture today is overcast and cold — 10.1°C, 100% cloud cover, light winds at 13.4 km/h — which is consistent with negligible solar output and moderate wind generation.
Pre-dispatch forecasts for the next two trading periods point to a price step-down. The 07:00 AEST half-hour (21:00 UTC) is consistently forecast at $96.90–$103.18/MWh across multiple pre-dispatch runs, with the most recent run (06:01 AEST) landing at $103.18/MWh. The 07:30 AEST period (21:30 UTC) is forecast at $97.08–$103.12/MWh, with the latest run at $100.65/MWh. The 08:00 AEST period (22:00 UTC) forecasts cluster around $103.18–$106.89/MWh, suggesting prices firm again as the morning demand ramp progresses. The load window analysis flags the 07:00 AEST period as a "good" opportunity at approximately $96.90–$97.08/MWh, representing a saving of around $128.94 relative to the reference price — the best near-term window in the forecast horizon.
No active market notices directly affect Tasmania's generation or network topology today. The notice of significance to watch for interconnected operations is the Koorangie–W