Regional Outlook — SA1: Monday 25 May 2026

The spot price in South Australia sits at $257.83/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, well above the overnight floor of $76.44/MWh recorded in the opening intervals of the price history window and significantly elevated relative to the mid-day trough where prices repeatedly settled at $88.06/MWh. The evening ramp has been sharp: prices climbed from the low $130s through the afternoon, breached $200/MWh after 04:00 AEST, and reached an intra-session high of $349.09/MWh at 06:25 AEST before the current print. Total demand sits at 1,458 MW — moderate for a winter morning — with the price elevation driven by the gas-dominant supply stack rather than a demand surge.

The current generation mix is entirely thermal and storage, reflecting zero solar output at this pre-dawn hour. Gas OCGT is contributing 457 MW and gas CCGT 395 MW, together accounting for 852 MW or roughly 58% of supply. Battery storage is discharging 173 MW and wind is contributing 129 MW, giving a combined renewable plus storage contribution of approximately 302 MW. Renewable penetration stands at 26.1%, down sharply from the 84–85% recorded during the high-wind overnight period when prices were in the $76–$97/MWh range. Carbon intensity sits at 0.4255 tCO2/MWh, near the session peak — the overnight low was 0.0880 tCO2/MWh when wind dominated. The shift from wind-led supply to gas-led supply through the early morning hours directly explains both the price trajectory and the near fivefold increase in carbon intensity since midnight AEST.

The most recent predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST and 07:30 AEST intervals are pointing to $203.72/MWh, a step down from current spot but still materially elevated. Earlier in the session, predispatch was pricing the 07:00 AEST interval as high as $1,001/MWh and $555.70/MWh before successive revisions brought the forecast down as the market digested available capacity. The morning peak window through 09:00–10:30 AEST carries forecast prints ranging from $170.44/MWh to $497.50/MWh across multiple predispatch runs, indicating significant uncertainty. Prices are expected to moderate through the mid-morning as demand softens and solar generation begins to emerge — today's outlook shows an average solar potential of 7.5 and a max temperature of 17.5°C, which should support some midday price relief.

Two SA-relevant market notices remain active. AEMO issued a contingency reclassification at 20:55 AEST on 25 May for the Penola West–South East 1 132kV and Kincraig–Penola West 1 132kV lines due to lightning activity, subsequently cancelled at 22:59 AEST — no constraint sets were invoked and the lines have reverted to non-credible status, so no binding network limitations from that event persist into today. More consequentially, a constraints notice (MN 144142) advises that AEMO will enable the Murraylink dynamic rating forecast in predispatch and PASA from 10:00 AEST Wednesday 27 May, activating constraint equations VSML_RAT_LIM