Regional Outlook — QLD1: Monday 25 May 2026

The Queensland spot price sits at $139.95/MWh at 06:30 AEST, well above the rolling overnight trough of $66/MWh reached around 08:30 AEST and broadly consistent with the evening ramp pattern that pushed prices to $239.73/MWh at the 16:00 AEST peak. Total demand stands at 6,324.65 MW, climbing from a post-midnight low near 4,922 MW as the morning ramp gains momentum. The 24-hour price trajectory has been characterised by a sharp morning peak (06:00–09:00 AEST, $120–$240/MWh range), a midday softening into the $65–$105/MWh band, and a renewed evening escalation from 18:00 AEST onward that is still active at this interval.

The current generation mix is dominated by black coal at 4,740.34 MW, with batteries dispatching 778.05 MW, gas OCGT contributing 648.23 MW, wind at 120.87 MW, hydro at 105 MW, and solar effectively offline at 0.1 MW. Renewable penetration sits at 15.71% at this interval — consistent with the overnight pattern where battery and wind combine in the absence of solar, but well below the 34–35% peaks recorded during the early-hours low-demand window (around 01:00–03:00 AEST). With 100% cloud cover forecast today and negligible solar potential across the full day, solar will contribute minimally throughout Tuesday, keeping renewable share constrained until wind picks up later in the week.

Carbon intensity is 0.7185 tCO2/MWh at the latest interval, elevated relative to the overnight low of approximately 0.566 tCO2/MWh recorded around 01:00 AEST when demand was lightest and thermal plant output reduced. Intensity has been tracking upward since 17:30 AEST — consistent with increased thermal dispatch against rising evening demand — and reached a session high near 0.806 tCO2/MWh at 05:25 AEST before batteries began absorbing some of the marginal load. Sustainability managers should note that the lowest-intensity window for today has already passed; the next comparable trough is unlikely until the early hours of Wednesday.

Pre-dispatch forecasts for the next two half-hours point to $115.99–$119.99/MWh at 07:00 AEST and $119.99–$133.83/MWh at 07:30 AEST, suggesting a modest easing from the current $139.95/MWh print as demand stabilises post-ramp. The 08:00–09:00 AEST window is forecast in the $133–$140/MWh range, indicating sustained elevated prices through the morning peak. The most relevant active market notice for Queensland operators is the EMMS systems transfer scheduled for 18:00–19:00 AEST today (Market Notice 144119), during which FPP calculation delivery may be delayed and the Market Portal will be intermittently unavailable — participants should ensure pre-dispatch data is captured ahead of that window. A separate Murraylink dynamic rating constraint (Market Notice 144142) activates at 10:00 AEST Wednesday, which may alter inter-regional flow limits and has potential downstream effects on Queensland's export position into the southern interconnects.