NEM Overview: Monday 25 May 2026

South Australia is the standout this interval at $349.09/MWh — more than 2.8 times the price in any other mainland region — with demand sitting at 1,522 MW and the region drawing 417 MW across the V-SA interconnector at its export limit. Gas is covering the load locally, with OCGT at 457 MW and CCGT at 395 MW, while wind contributes only 129 MW. The interconnector is binding, which explains the price premium. The Tailem Bend 275 kV East Bus outage and the Koorangie–Wemen 220 kV line outage in Victoria (constraint set V-KOWE active, affecting V-SA and VIC1-NSW1 LHS equations) are constraining import capacity into SA and are the key structural drivers of the spread. The contingency reclassification on the Penola West–South East 132 kV lines due to lightning has since been cancelled as of 22:59 last night, so that specific credible contingency is resolved, but the broader network topology remains tight.

The rest of the NEM is broadly settled. NSW sits at $120.90/MWh with demand at 7,796 MW, Queensland at $122/MWh with 6,256 MW, Victoria at $110.50/MWh with 5,358 MW, and Tasmania at $105.12/MWh — the tightest cluster of regional prices seen in some time outside SA. VIC is exporting 362 MW to NSW via VIC1-NSW1, and NSW is in turn exporting a net 58 MW north into Queensland. The Basslink interconnector (T-V-MNSP1) sits at zero flow. NEM-wide renewable penetration is 34.8% on the gridIQ score, with Tasmania running at 100% renewable (hydro 1,041 MW, wind 214 MW), Victoria generating 1,093 MW from wind against a brown coal base of 4,566 MW, and NSW pulling 319 MW from wind with hydro at 868 MW. Queensland's wind output is modest at 121 MW. Carbon intensity scores reflect the mix: Tasmania at 0 tCO2/MWh, SA at 0.43 tCO2/MWh, NSW at 0.71 tCO2/MWh, Queensland at 0.72 tCO2/MWh, and Victoria at 0.95 tCO2/MWh.

The grid stress score of 72.1 warrants attention today. Cloud cover is at 100% across NSW, Victoria, Queensland, and Tasmania right now, suppressing solar across the board — SA is the only region with partial clearing (59% cloud cover) and will see improved solar potential through the day with an average solar potential of 7.5 today. NSW and Victoria face near-total overcast conditions all day with solar potential close to zero, meaning the morning and evening demand ramps will be met almost entirely by dispatchable and wind generation. Wind conditions are light across most regions today. The EMMS production system transfer is scheduled for 18:00–19:00 AEST tonight, during which FPP delivery may be delayed and the Market Portal will be intermittently unavailable — participants should ensure positions are lodged ahead of that window. AEMO's most recent MT PASA run (19 May) identifies no Low Reserve Conditions across the NEM.