Commodity Demand — VIC1: Monday 25 May 2026

Victoria's spot price sits at $110.50/MWh with total demand at 5,358 MW at 06:25 AEST, well off the overnight peak of 6,923 MW reached around 17:50 AEST. The price-demand relationship across today's trading has been pronounced: demand above 6,500 MW consistently produced prices of $110.50–$130/MWh during the morning ramp, while the midday trough — demand falling to a daily low of approximately 4,363 MW at 03:35 AEST — saw prices compress to a floor of $20–$60/MWh range. That $90/MWh price band between the floor and ceiling tracks closely with each 500 MW shift in demand, confirming a tight supply stack at current dispatch levels.

Demand has been climbing steadily from the overnight low, rising roughly 1,000 MW across the past two hours as the morning residential and commercial load ramp takes hold. At 9.9°C with 100% cloud cover and a heating demand index of 8.1, today's thermal load profile is firmly winter-driven — no solar is contributing and wind is near negligible at 0.1 potential, leaving brown coal at 4,566 MW and batteries at 232 MW as the primary sources meeting this build. The Koorangie–Wemen 220kV line outage (constraint set V-KOWE, active since 11:30 AEST yesterday) continues to bind on multiple interconnectors including VIC1–NSW1, tightening the effective supply margin available to Victoria and adding upward price pressure whenever demand spikes.

Forecast prices for the 07:00–07:30 AEST half-hours are anchored around $110.50/MWh, consistent with the current read. Demand is expected to continue rising through the 08:00–09:00 AEST commercial ramp, historically the period where Victorian winter prices push toward the $120–$130/MWh range seen during this morning's earlier peak at 17:00 AEST. Load windows from overnight pre-dispatch forecasting point to a pronounced valley between 10:00 and 15:30 AEST — prices as low as $10.50/MWh in the early-morning hours and sub-$70/MWh through the midday window — before demand rebuilds into the evening peak. The Murraylink dynamic rating constraint activation scheduled for 10:00 AEST Wednesday (Market Notice 144046) may modestly shift interconnector flows but is unlikely to materially alter the intraday price shape given Murraylink's limited MW capacity relative to Victoria's demand.

The critical watch point for traders today is the evening demand ramp from approximately 14:00 AEST onward. If demand replicates the trajectory from the equivalent period in the price history — rising from roughly 4,800 MW to above 6,900 MW over four hours — and the Koorangie–Wemen constraint remains bound, the supply stack will tighten rapidly. Pre-dispatch forecasts already flag $110.50/MWh for the 07:00 AEST half-hour; any demand overshoot against forecast or unexpected generator non-conformance during the evening ramp carries clear upside price risk toward the $120–$130/MWh range seen at peak yesterday.