Commodity Demand — TAS1: Monday 25 May 2026

Tasmania's spot price sits at $106.12/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 1,192 MW and rising. That price level marks the top of a clear evening ramp that has been climbing since the overnight trough — demand bottomed near 1,109 MW around 13:45 AEST before ascending steadily through the evening, tracking closely with price escalation from $97.04/MWh at the afternoon low to the current $106.12/MWh. The demand-price relationship today has been notably compressed: throughout the morning peak above 1,385 MW, prices held at just $103–106/MWh, reflecting ample hydro and wind capacity absorbing elevated load without material price stress. The sole outlier was a brief $143.17/MWh spike at 20:10 AEST when demand nudged to 1,305 MW, likely reflecting a short-term dispatch constraint rather than sustained supply tightness.

The day's demand profile follows a textbook winter Tuesday shape. Demand climbed from around 1,100 MW at overnight minimum to a morning peak of 1,386 MW at 18:00 AEST (08:00 local), retreated through the midday trough to a session low of 964 MW at 01:05 AEST (15:05 local), and is now re-ascending into the evening peak. Current generation is 1,041 MW from hydro and 214 MW from wind, with gas OCGT at zero — supply is comfortably covering the 1,192 MW load. Temperature sits at 10.1°C with 100% cloud cover and a heating demand index of 7.9, consistent with sustained evening load build through to approximately 08:00–09:00 AEST tomorrow morning.

Near-term forecasts price the 07:00 AEST interval (21:00 UTC) at $96.90–$103.18/MWh across successive pre-dispatch runs, with the most recent run at $103.18/MWh — suggesting dispatchers expect demand to remain elevated but that current supply margins are sufficient to prevent further price escalation. The 07:30 AEST interval is forecast at $100.65–$103.12/MWh, and pricing through the 08:00–10:00 AEST window clusters in the $103–$107/MWh range. The key sensitivity is whether demand continues climbing toward the 1,300–1,350 MW range that characterised this morning's peak; at those levels today's data shows prices held at $103/MWh, suggesting the marginal dispatch stack has capacity headroom before prices break materially higher.

One structural factor worth noting: AEMO's market notice confirms Murraylink dynamic rating constraints (VSML_RAT_LIM_DYN and SVML_RAT_LIM_DYN) activate at 10:00 AEST tomorrow on the Basslink-adjacent VIC-SA corridor. While this does not directly constrain the Tasmanian interconnector (T-V-MNSP1), the V-KOWE constraint set active on the Koorangie-Wemen 220 kV line includes T-V-MNSP1 on its left-hand side, meaning Victorian network tightness could place indirect upward pressure on Tasmanian export flows and domestic price outcomes during tomorrow's morning peak window.