Regional Outlook — TAS1: Sunday 24 May 2026

The spot price in Tasmania sits at $103.20/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 1,194.78 MW. Tracing the price history across the past 24 hours reveals a clear pattern: prices opened around $86.83–$87.08/MWh in the early evening, climbed steadily through the overnight period to a plateau of $102.14–$103.56/MWh, with a brief spike to $118.46/MWh at 19:45 AEST and a secondary high of $149.10/MWh at 06:05 AEST before retreating to the current $103.20/MWh level. The 24-hour simple average sits in the $98–$100/MWh range, placing the current price modestly above that mean. Demand peaked at approximately 1,347 MW during the morning ramp around 17:55–18:00 AEST and has since eased as the working day tapers.

The generation mix is dominated by hydro at 1,149.55 MW, with wind contributing 17.35 MW and gas OCGT at zero output. Renewables are contributing 100% of Tasmania's dispatch, and carbon intensity registers 0 tCO2/MWh — a reading that has held continuously across every recorded interval in the dataset. Total metered generation of approximately 1,167 MW against operational demand of 1,195 MW implies Tasmania is drawing a modest net import via Basslink at present, consistent with typical overnight and early-morning operating conditions when hydro dispatch is managed conservatively.

Predispatch forecasts point to a price step-up from the current level. The 07:00 AEST half-hour (21:00 UTC) interval is forecast at $103.20/MWh, the 07:30 AEST interval at approximately $113–$115/MWh, and the 08:00–08:30 AEST window in the $113–$116/MWh range. Forecasts for the 09:00–11:00 AEST morning demand period cluster in the $103–$116/MWh band, with a spread suggesting moderate uncertainty around the morning commercial peak. One outlier forecast of $191.54/MWh for the 07:30 AEST interval (from the 04:02 AEST predispatch run) did not persist in subsequent runs and should be treated as a transient model artefact rather than a firm signal. The overall predispatch trajectory implies prices will firm modestly through the morning peak before easing back toward the $103/MWh range through the mid-morning.

No market notices directly affect Tasmania today. The active notices in the system relate to an inter-regional transfer limit variation on the Tailem Bend 275 kV East Bus in South Australia (constraint set S-TB275_E_BUS invoked at 12:50 AEST 24 May, affecting the V-SA interconnector) and a now-cancelled SA direction event. Neither directly constrains the Basslink interconnector or TAS1 dispatch, though the SA constraint does affect the V-SA flow path which can indirectly influence Victorian pricing and therefore Basslink economics. Traders should also note a planned EMMS production system transfer to the alternative datacentre scheduled for 04:00–05:00 AEST on 27 May, with intermittent Market Portal unavailability — no dispatch impact