Regional Outlook — SA1: Sunday 24 May 2026

The SA spot price sits at **$82.65/MWh** at 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 1,506 MW. This is well below the morning peak that pushed prices into the **$120–$198/MWh** range during the 14:30–19:00 AEST window, and represents a meaningful easing as the region moves through the overnight period. The 24-hour price arc was pronounced: prices held in the mid-$60s to low $70s through the early evening, spiked sharply from around 12:00 AEST with sustained readings above $120/MWh and a high of $198/MWh at 19:45 AEST, before retreating through the $80s as demand fell away from its ~1,920 MW daytime peak.

The current generation mix is dominated by **wind at 1,493.65 MW**, with gas OCGT contributing 189.88 MW, gas CCGT at 101.48 MW, battery at 22.47 MW, and solar at zero (as expected overnight). Wind accounts for the bulk of dispatch, with renewables sitting at **83.88%** of the mix. Carbon intensity is **0.0958 tCO2/MWh** — elevated relative to the overnight trough of around 0.042 tCO2/MWh recorded earlier in the cycle, driven by the greater share of gas peaking required to meet rising demand through the morning hours. The intensity profile through today traced a significant daytime excursion, peaking above **0.38 tCO2/MWh** during the morning demand peak when gas was carrying heavier load, before wind output reasserted through the afternoon and evening.

Two SA-specific market notices are active and material. AEMO invoked an **intervention direction in SA** from 04:05 AEST on 24 May (Market Notice 144136) under s.116 of the National Electricity Law, subsequently cancelling it at 12:20 AEST (MN 144138). A separate **inter-regional transfer limit variation** remains active (MN 144139) following a short-notice outage of the **Tailem Bend 275 kV East Bus** at 22:50 AEST, invoking constraint set S-TB275_E_BUS affecting the V-SA interconnector. This constraint is live and warrants close attention — interconnector limits on V-SA directly affect SA's ability to import from Victoria, which is a key buffer when local gas peakers face dispatch pressure.

Predispatch forecasts for the **07:00 AEST half-hour** (21:00 UTC target) are coalescing in the **$83–$94/MWh** range across successive runs, with the most recent estimate at **$87.19/MWh** — consistent with current actuals. The **07:30 AEST** interval is forecast materially higher, with earlier runs showing up to **$192/MWh** before later runs settled back to a median around **$100–$116/MWh**, reflecting residual uncertainty around the Tailem Bend constraint and gas dispatch stack. Overnight half-hours from 09:00–13:00 AEST are forecast in the **$35–$75/MWh** band, with wind potential forecast to remain solid (avg 12.6 on today's outlook) and cloud cover at 64% limiting solar contribution. Traders holding exposure to