Regional Outlook — QLD1: Sunday 24 May 2026

The Queensland spot price sits at $111.11/MWh against a total demand of 6,212 MW as of 06:30 AEST. This is firmly within the elevated morning demand band that opened above $95/MWh from around 05:30 AEST and peaked briefly at $133.83/MWh during the 07:00 and 08:35 intervals — consistent with a typical winter weekday ramp profile. The overnight trough settled at $40.03/MWh between roughly 22:30 and 09:00 UTC (08:30–19:00 AEST overnight), before demand climbed sharply from approximately 4,300 MW to the current 6,212 MW. The current price sits modestly above the 24-hour average of approximately $86/MWh, reflecting the sustained morning peak loading.

The generation mix at the most recent trading interval (06:00 AEST) shows black coal supplying 4,618.59 MW (79.8% of output), gas OCGT contributing 483.55 MW (8.3%), wind at 436.22 MW (7.5%), hydro at 118.75 MW (2.1%), battery discharging 63.89 MW (1.1%), and solar effectively offline at 0.22 MW ahead of sunrise. Total renewable penetration — wind, hydro, solar, and battery — sits at 10.82%, consistent with the low renewable contribution recorded across most of the daylight and morning hours as solar generation has not yet ramped. Carbon intensity stands at 0.7653 tCO2/MWh, near the highest level recorded over the past 24 hours. Intensity ranged as low as 0.4619 tCO2/MWh overnight around 08:30–09:00 AEST when wind output was stronger relative to reduced overnight demand; the current figure reflects coal carrying the bulk of the morning peak.

Pre-dispatch forecasts for the next two half-hour intervals are instructive. The 07:00 AEST (21:00 UTC) interval is forecast at $111.11/MWh in the most recent pre-dispatch run, down materially from earlier runs that had this interval ranging between $120 and $140/MWh — a convergence pattern indicating the market has cleared the higher end of morning peak uncertainty. The 07:30 AEST (21:30 UTC) interval carries substantially more dispersion, with forecasts ranging from $151 to $339/MWh across earlier runs. This spread signals elevated price risk as demand continues to build and solar has not yet contributed meaningfully. Traders should treat the 21:30 UTC interval as the key uncertainty point for the morning session. Load window analysis indicates prices ease back toward $65–$96/MWh from 08:30 AEST onward as demand rolls off the morning peak, with overnight windows from 10:30 AEST falling to the $40–$55/MWh range.

The most relevant active market notice for Queensland is the direction issued on 23 May (Notice 144132) requiring a participant in the QLD region to maintain secure operating state, with a cancellation notice (144134) confirming that direction ended at 14:30 AEST on 23 May. That event is resolved and carries no current operational implication. Two non-conformance notices have been issued against Queensland units — STAN-1 on 23 May (22 MW, 5 minutes