NEM Overview: Sunday 24 May 2026
Spot prices are running in a narrow $77–$107/MWh band across the NEM as of 06:25 AEST, with Queensland leading at $106.75/MWh on 6,214 MW of demand, followed by Tasmania at $103.20/MWh and NSW at $101.02/MWh on 7,769 MW. Victoria sits at $88.97/MWh and SA is the cheapest region at $76.48/MWh — a $30/MWh spread from bottom to top that is unremarkable for a winter Monday morning. The VIC1-NSW1 interconnector is carrying 571 MW northbound and V-SA is pushing 467 MW into SA from Victoria, consistent with SA's lower local price. Basslink (T-V-MNSP1) is sitting at zero flow.
NEM-wide renewable penetration is 34.9% against a grid stress score of 81, with carbon intensity scoring 48.6 out of 100. The generation mix is firmly night-time in character: solar is effectively zero across all regions, and wind is carrying the renewable load — SA is producing 1,494 MW of wind at 84% renewable penetration locally, Victoria is generating 608 MW of wind, NSW 377 MW, and Queensland 436 MW. Tasmania is running on 1,150 MW of hydro at 100% renewable. NSW and Queensland are each leaning heavily on black coal (5,675 MW and 4,619 MW respectively), Victoria on brown coal at 4,577 MW. Queensland has 484 MW of gas OCGT online alongside 64 MW of battery discharge, reflecting higher evening demand and the tightest price in the mainland NEM.
The most significant active notice is the Tailem Bend 275 kV East Bus outage in SA (constraint set S-TB275_E_BUS invoked at 12:50 AEST yesterday), which is binding on the V-SA interconnector. Traders with SA exposure should note this constraint remains active and limits transfer capability on that corridor — watch for any tightening if SA wind drops during today's morning ramp. There is also a residual market intervention notice from a direction issued to an SA participant overnight (Market Notice 144136, from 04:05 AEST yesterday) alongside its cancellation at 12:20 AEST — the intervention event is formally closed but the notice remains active in the feed.
Today's outlook is stable for most regions. NSW clears cloud cover through the day to an average solar potential of 5.3 with a max of 20.5°C — expect a modest midday solar contribution. SA has the best wind outlook today (avg wind potential 12.6) with partial cloud clearing, which should keep local prices soft if the Tailem Bend constraint eases. Victoria and Queensland both face high cloud cover with minimal solar and wind, leaving those regions dependent on their thermal and hydro fleets through the day. The MT PASA published 19 May identified no low reserve conditions across the outlook horizon, and there are no active LOR notices in force today.