Commodity Demand — QLD1: Sunday 24 May 2026

Queensland spot price sits at $111.11/MWh with demand at 6,212 MW as of 06:30 AEST. Today's demand profile follows a textbook winter weekday shape: the overnight trough bottomed near 4,300 MW with prices pinned at the $40.03/MWh floor from roughly 23:30–08:30 AEST, before a sharp morning ramp accelerated demand through 5,000 MW and prices broke above $100/MWh by 15:30 AEST. The peak so far reached 7,243 MW at 17:43 AEST with prices touching $136.54/MWh — a clear demonstration of Queensland's steep price sensitivity once demand clears the 7,000 MW threshold. Demand has since eased as residential and commercial loads step down through the early evening, though at 6,212 MW it remains solidly in the elevated pricing band.

The demand-to-price relationship today shows three distinct zones: below approximately 5,000 MW, prices are anchored near $40/MWh as baseload capacity is sufficient with margin to spare; between 5,000–6,500 MW, prices trade in the $80–$110/MWh range as mid-merit plant is required; and above 6,500 MW, prices become volatile and regularly spike above $120/MWh as peaking capacity is dispatched. The $116.71–$131.12/MWh interval between 06:20–06:35 AEST, when demand crossed 6,540–6,658 MW, illustrates how quickly supply tightens on the upper portion of the merit order.

The evening trajectory is the key outlook driver. Demand is currently climbing from a mid-afternoon low near 5,175 MW (around 02:35 AEST) back through 6,212 MW and the price history from 05:30–06:30 AEST shows the ramp is ongoing. Forecasts for the 07:00–07:30 AEST half-hours (21:00–21:30 UTC) point to $111–$118/MWh for the 07:00 interval and a wide range of $117–$339/MWh for the 07:30 interval, with the median sitting around $190–$232/MWh — indicating genuine market uncertainty about whether demand will push into the tightest supply range again this evening. Today's maximum of 17.1°C with high cloud cover (88%) keeps heating demand moderate, limiting the upside, but the Monday return-to-work load profile could sustain demand above 6,000 MW through to at least 09:00–09:30 AEST before beginning to ease.

Load scheduling opportunities are concentrated in the 08:30–10:30 AEST window (00:30–02:30 UTC), where forecast prices fall to $40–$67/MWh as demand drops back toward the 4,400–4,700 MW overnight range. Flexible industrial and commercial loads currently operating during peak pricing have a saving differential of $70–$90/MWh against current spot by shifting to that window. Note that Market Notice 144132/134 records a direction issued to a Queensland participant on 23 May for system security purposes, cancelled at 14:30 that day — no active Queensland system security directions are current, and no LOR conditions are flagged for today.