Commodity Demand — NSW1: Sunday 24 May 2026

NSW spot price sits at $101.02/MWh with demand at 7,769 MW as of 06:25 AEST, and the trajectory through this evening is firmly upward. The price-demand relationship across today's data is textbook: demand troughed around 6,391 MW at 03:55 AEST with prices in the high-$70s to mid-$80s/MWh range, then climbed steadily through the morning peak to 9,242 MW by 18:55 AEST, where prices consistently held $110–$143/MWh. As demand pulled back through the afternoon — dropping below 7,000 MW between 02:00 and 03:00 AEST — prices followed, settling in the $79–$96/MWh band. The current 7,769 MW reading represents a resumption of the evening demand ramp, with demand up roughly 1,378 MW from the post-midday trough in just over three hours.

The evening ramp is the key price driver from here. Demand has risen from 6,391 MW at 03:55 AEST to 7,769 MW now and is accelerating — the 20:10 AEST interval registered 7,549 MW at $110.21/MWh, and the most recent intervals are tracking above that demand level. Forecasts for the 07:00 AEST interval (21:00 UTC) are converging around $110–$116/MWh, down from earlier projections in the $120–$135/MWh range issued this morning, suggesting the market has modestly revised its evening peak expectations downward. The 21:30 AEST half-hour carries wider forecast dispersion — earlier runs printed $151–$241/MWh before later forecasts settled near $120–$149/MWh — indicating residual uncertainty around how far demand climbs and how quickly it plateaus.

Weather is a moderate amplifier tonight. The current temperature is 14.6°C with a heating demand index of 3.4 and 98% cloud cover, meaning solar contribution is effectively nil (0.01 MW at the 06:00 AEST trading interval) and wind is generating 376.96 MW — well below its potential. Black coal at 5,674.94 MW and hydro at 788.8 MW are carrying the bulk of supply. With no gas capacity dispatched, the supply stack has limited fast-response headroom if demand surprises to the upside during the 07:00–09:00 AEST window, which historically represents the firmest part of the NSW evening peak. Load window data confirms the market expects prices to ease materially after approximately 09:00–09:30 AEST, with overnight intervals pricing in the $40–$74/MWh range — consistent with demand retreating back below 7,000 MW once the heating-driven evening load dissipates.