Regional Outlook — VIC1: Saturday 23 May 2026

The Victorian spot price sits at $67.47/MWh with total demand at 4,742 MW — a Sunday evening profile consistent with residential load building as temperatures sit at 9.2°C with 94% cloud cover and a heating demand index of 8.8. Looking across the past 24 hours, prices were subdued overnight (regularly dipping below $20/MWh between 2100–0600 AEST) before spiking sharply into the morning peak, with the 0630–0900 AEST window sustaining prices of $85–$100/MWh on demand exceeding 6,500 MW. The afternoon and evening have stabilised in the $60–$70/MWh band as demand eased from its daytime high.

The current generation mix is dominated by brown coal at 4,439 MW, with wind contributing 849 MW and hydro a minor 16 MW. Solar output is zero — expected given the late hour and heavy overcast — and both gas CCGT and OCGT sit at zero dispatch. Battery storage is effectively flat at 0.05 MW net. Renewables are contributing 16.31% of generation at this interval, a notable step down from the 29–31% recorded during the overnight and early morning hours when wind output was stronger relative to total demand. The latest carbon intensity sits at 1.021 tCO2/MWh, up from a daily low of approximately 0.832 tCO2/MWh recorded around 0930–1000 AEST when renewable penetration briefly touched 30%. The trend through the day has been deteriorating as wind output has softened and demand shifted the brown coal dispatch proportion higher.

Predispatch forecasts point to a material price softening over the next two to three hours. The 0700 AEST interval (2100 UTC) is forecast at $69.41/MWh in the most recent run, consistent with a gradual easing toward the $35–$52/MWh range by 0800–0830 AEST (2200–2230 UTC) as overnight demand falls away. By 0930 AEST (2330 UTC), forecasts are converging on $22–$24/MWh, flagging the typical deep-off-peak trough. Flexible load operators and battery managers should note this steep post-2100 AEST descent as the primary arbitrage window tonight. The 100% cloud cover forecast for today and tomorrow eliminates any solar upside, and wind potential remains modest (average 1.7 for Sunday), keeping renewable penetration low through the overnight period.

The most operationally relevant active notice for today is Market Notice 144136, a market intervention direction issued to a participant in the SA region effective from 0405 AEST 24 May 2026 — directly relevant to Victorian traders because SA directions typically tighten the V-SA interconnector operating envelope and can influence Victorian dispatch through constraint equations. Intervention pricing does not apply to this event per the notice. Separately, the South Morang F2 500/330 kV transformer outage (constraint set V-SMTX_F_R), which affected VIC1–NSW1 and V-SA interconnector limits, was scheduled to conclude at 1700 AEST on 22 May, so that constraint should be resolved; however, traders with VIC–SA exposure should monitor the SA direction closely as it runs into Sunday morning. The Murraylink outage notices (I-ML_ZERO