Regional Outlook — TAS1: Saturday 23 May 2026

The spot price in Tasmania sits at $97.04/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 1,045 MW — well below the morning peak of 1,325 MW recorded around 17:30–18:00 AEST. Reviewing the 24-hour price history, Tasmania traded in a broad band of $80–$106/MWh through most of the period, with two notable spikes to $150/MWh and $135/MWh in the 14:30–15:00 AEST window and a secondary cluster of $140/MWh prints between 04:40–05:00 AEST. Outside those brief excursions, the price has been anchored in a tight $97–$105/MWh range since approximately 20:30 AEST, indicating a stable but moderately elevated floor driven by marginal hydro dispatch pricing.

The generation mix at 06:25 AEST shows hydro contributing 1,006 MW and wind 109 MW, with gas OCGT at zero. Combined output of 1,115 MW sits above measured demand of 1,045 MW, with the surplus consistent with net export across Basslink to Victoria. Carbon intensity records 0 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at 100%, a reading that has held continuously across the entire 24-hour history in the dataset — reflecting Tasmania's fully hydro-and-wind generation profile today. Grid stress scores at 87.8/100, which traders should note as elevated despite the clean mix; this likely reflects Basslink flow obligations and the relatively thin dispatchable headroom above demand once export commitments are factored in.

Predispatch forecasts point to prices lifting modestly through today's AEST morning. The 07:00 AEST half-hour (21:00 UTC) is forecast at $97.02–$97.97/MWh, the 08:00 AEST half-hour (22:00 UTC) at $102.16–$103.13/MWh, and the 09:00 AEST half-hour (23:00 UTC) in the $97–$102/MWh range. This $97–$103/MWh band is broadly consistent across all half-hours out to the 20:30 AEST horizon, with no predispatch outliers suggesting a significant price event. The weather outlook reinforces subdued solar contribution today — cloud cover is at 70% currently, rising to 88–100% over the next seven days, with wind potential remaining low at 0.2 average for Sunday and Monday before lifting slightly mid-week.

The most operationally relevant active market notice for today is the AEMO direction issued to an SA region participant effective from the interval ending 04:05 AEST on 24 May 2026 (Market Notice 144136), which constitutes an active AEMO intervention event. While this notice directly affects SA rather than Tasmania, traders should monitor Heywood and Murraylink flows carefully: SA system stress can alter the Victoria dispatch stack, which in turn affects Basslink scheduling and TAS1 export economics. An EMMS production systems datacentre transfer is also scheduled between 04:00–05:00 AEST on 27 May, with potential delays to FPP calculations and intermittent Market Portal unavailability — relevant for participants managing TAS1 positions into next week.