Regional Outlook — QLD1: Saturday 23 May 2026
The Queensland spot price sits at $78.99/MWh at 6:30 AEST, with total demand at 5,418 MW — well off today's overnight trough of around 4,040–4,130 MW and the morning peak of 6,890 MW seen around 17:40 AEST. The 24-hour price arc has been pronounced: overnight intervals repeatedly printed negative (bottoming near -$2.77/MWh between 14:30 and 15:00 AEST) before surging through the morning peak to a high of $107.32/MWh at 17:00 AEST, then easing progressively through the afternoon and evening as demand unwound. The current $78.99/MWh sits comfortably within the range that characterised the 18:00–21:00 AEST period, suggesting the evening demand ramp has passed its inflection point.
The current generation mix is dominated by black coal at 4,284 MW (approximately 79% of dispatch), with wind contributing 623 MW (11.5%), gas OCGT at 256 MW (4.7%), hydro at 120 MW (2.2%), and battery discharging 44 MW (0.8%). Solar has effectively zeroed out, consistent with post-sunset conditions. Renewable penetration stands at 14.76% at the latest interval — a significant compression from the overnight high of roughly 50% when coal was running at lower output and wind carried a larger share. Carbon intensity is 0.7391 tCO2/MWh, up sharply from the overnight low of approximately 0.43 tCO2/MWh, driven by the full return of coal-fired plant to meet daytime and evening demand. Today's cloud cover at 31% and moderate solar potential (0 at present) mean tomorrow's solar outlook depends on 68% average cloud cover forecast, which will limit rooftop and large-scale solar penetration during the day.
Predispatch forecasts for the 07:30–08:30 AEST window (21:00–22:00 UTC target intervals) point to prices in the $72.50–$81.83/MWh range, with the most recent runs converging near $80/MWh for the 07:30 AEST half-hour. The 08:00 AEST period (22:00 UTC) is forecast at approximately $39.75/MWh across multiple runs, and the 08:30 AEST interval sits around $38/MWh, reflecting the expected transition to low overnight demand. Load optimisers should note the 10:00 AEST window (00:00 UTC) carries forecasts close to $0.01–$40/MWh depending on vintage, with several runs projecting near-zero or sub-$5/MWh prices — consistent with the overnight pattern seen in previous days. The 11:00 AEST slot (01:00 UTC) shows similar sub-$25/MWh forecasts across multiple runs, making the 10:00–13:00 AEST band the primary low-cost window for flexible load today.
On market notices: a Queensland direction issued at 12:48 AEST today (Market Notice 144132) to maintain the power system in a secure operating state was cancelled at 14:30 AEST (Market Notice 144134), so no active Queensland direction is in force at time of writing. A separate