Commodity Demand — QLD1: Saturday 23 May 2026

Queensland spot price sits at $78.99/MWh at 06:30 AEST with demand at 5,418 MW — well off the day's peak but tracking a mild evening build. The price-demand relationship across today's history is sharply defined: demand crested near 6,890 MW during the morning peak (07:40 AEST) with prices touching $103.97/MWh, while the overnight trough saw demand fall to around 4,039 MW and prices collapse to near zero and briefly negative. That overnight period, running from roughly 10:00 AEST last night through to 05:15 AEST this morning, produced sustained negative and near-zero prices as supply exceeded demand at the bottom of the system load curve — a clear signal of surplus baseload conditions on a mild autumn Sunday night.

The demand trajectory through today shows a textbook Sunday shoulder profile. From the overnight floor, demand climbed steeply through the 05:00–07:30 AEST window — a rise of approximately 2,800 MW in under three hours — pulling prices from negative territory to above $100/MWh at the morning peak. Demand has since eased progressively, dropping from ~6,890 MW at 07:40 AEST to the current 5,418 MW, and prices have followed, compressing into the $77–$82/MWh band across the afternoon and early evening. The price-per-MW sensitivity during the morning ramp was approximately $0.035–$0.040/MWh per MW of additional demand, reflecting the steepening marginal cost stack as higher-cost plant was dispatched.

Forecast prices for the 07:00–09:30 AEST window tonight point to $72.50–$81.83/MWh, consistent with demand remaining in the 5,200–5,500 MW range as the mild evening peak builds. Temperature is 15.6°C with minimal cooling load and only modest heating demand of 2.4 units, so no weather-driven demand spike is expected. Today's maximum is forecast at 22.9°C, which keeps demand subdued relative to winter peak conditions. Solar generation is negligible at this hour (0.01 MW), with wind at 622 MW and black coal carrying 4,284 MW of the 5,444 MW generation mix. The AEMO direction issued for Queensland overnight (Market Notice 144132, cancelled at 14:30 AEST) related to system security rather than a supply shortfall; the associated STAN-1 non-conformance of 22 MW was brief and immaterial to the price path.

The key demand-side watch for the remainder of today is the 19:00–21:00 AEST window. Forecast prices step down through that period — from ~$81.83/MWh at 07:30 AEST tonight to $52–$55/MWh by 08:30 AEST and into the low $30s by 09:00–09:30 AEST as Sunday night demand retreats. The absence of any thermal stress or reserve notices currently active in Queensland, combined with mild weather and a Sunday demand profile, points to a benign overnight price trajectory with further downward pressure once post-peak demand erosion takes hold from approximately 08:00 AEST.