Commodity Demand — NSW1: Saturday 23 May 2026

NSW spot price sits at $76.94/MWh with demand at 6,632 MW as of 06:30 AEST — well off the morning peak of 9,328 MW reached around 18:55 AEST, which drove prices above $100/MWh during the pre-dawn ramp. The data tells a clear demand-price story across the day: prices held sub-$40/MWh through the overnight trough (demand 6,700–7,200 MW), then surged to $100–$105/MWh as demand climbed steeply through the 14:30–17:55 AEST morning peak window, before easing back as demand retreated. The current $76.94/MWh price is consistent with the post-peak shoulder — demand has shed roughly 2,700 MW from its high, and prices have responded proportionally, compressing from the $91–$105/MWh band back toward the high-$70s.

Being a Sunday, today's demand trajectory is shaping up softer than weekday equivalents. Forecast prices for the next several intervals point to a modest step-down: the 07:00 AEST half-hour is forecast at $80/MWh, easing to $56/MWh by 07:30 AEST and continuing to soften through $40–$56/MWh across the 08:00–09:30 AEST window as demand slides through its Sunday overnight trough. The floor looks to arrive in the 09:30–10:00 AEST range, where forecasts cluster near $23–$36/MWh, consistent with overnight lows seen earlier in this cycle when demand touched the low-6,700s MW.

The morning demand build, which on this dataset typically commences around 14:30–15:00 AEST, is where price risk concentrates. Black coal is carrying 4,466 MW of the current load, with wind at 735 MW and hydro at 541 MW rounding out the bulk of supply. Gas plant (both CCGT and OCGT) shows zero generation at the current interval, indicating the market is not yet requiring peaking capacity. That changes once demand climbs back through the 7,500–8,000 MW range — the price history shows that is precisely the threshold at which prices broke above $80/MWh on the morning ramp, reaching $86–$105/MWh between 15:30 and 18:00 AEST. Traders positioning for the morning peak window should note the grid stress score sits at 88.7, flagging tightening conditions as demand rises.

One market notice warrants attention for NSW participants: AEMO issued a direction in South Australia commencing the interval ending 04:05 AEST on 24 May 2026 (Market Notice 144136), which is active this morning. While the direction and intervention event are SA-specific, inter-regional flows on the VIC1–NSW1 interconnector can shift in response to SA dispatch changes, adding a degree of external price pressure to the NSW morning ramp. No NSW-specific direction or reserve notice is currently active.