Regional Outlook — TAS1: Friday 22 May 2026

Tasmania's spot price sits at $106.16/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 1,057 MW — a relatively modest Saturday load consistent with the weekend profile. Tracing the last 24 hours, prices ranged from a low of $80.08/MWh during the pre-dawn trough (around 13:40–14:10 AEST) to a spike of $150.22/MWh at approximately 07:45 AEST, likely driven by an evening demand surge as demand climbed toward 1,455 MW. The bulk of the period has traded in the $97–$107/MWh band, giving a rough 24-hour average in the low-to-mid $100s/MWh. The current price is therefore broadly in line with the prevailing baseline, with no active high-price event in play.

The generation mix is running entirely on hydro and wind. Hydro is contributing 925 MW and wind 208 MW, with gas OCGT sitting at zero output. Carbon intensity registers at 0 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at 100% — a condition that has held continuously across every recorded interval in the dataset. Temperature sits at 6.8°C with 100% cloud cover and negligible solar potential, so solar makes no contribution today; wind potential is low at 1.3 on the index, consistent with the 208 MW wind output. Total generation of approximately 1,133 MW against demand of 1,057 MW implies Tasmania is in a modest net export position across Basslink into Victoria, though interconnector flow data is not provided directly.

Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST half-hour show a range of $108.16/MWh from the most recent run (20:01 UTC), broadly consistent with current levels. Earlier in the forecast sequence, estimates for that interval reached as high as $113.24/MWh before settling back. The 07:30 AEST interval is forecast at $105.21/MWh. Load window optimisation data points to prices softening materially through the overnight period, with a floor around $79–$80/MWh expected between roughly 09:30–13:30 AEST — this is the optimal demand-shifting window for price-sensitive loads. Prices are then expected to firm again toward the morning peak period from 14:00–16:00 AEST, with some forecasts nudging into the low-to-mid $90s.

The one active market notice relevant to today's operations is CHG0110834 — a planned outage of AEMO's Cisco ISE authentication servers scheduled from 10:00–17:00 AEST today (23 May). SSL VPN participants may experience authentication delays; existing connections are not expected to drop. IPWAN, LAN-to-LAN VPN, B2B VPN, and GASHUB participants face no impact. A separate Gas Hub B2B schema update outage (CHG0110523) also runs 10:00–20:00 AEST today, affecting east coast gas retail B2B systems — not directly relevant to TAS1 electricity dispatch but worth noting for any participants with cross-commodity operations. No TAS1-specific network, reserve, or contingency notices are active; all reserve and contingency events in the notice feed relate to QLD, NSW, VIC, and SA.