Regional Outlook — SA1: Friday 22 May 2026

The spot price in South Australia sits at **$48.05/MWh** at 06:00 AEST, with total demand at **1,349 MW** — a Saturday morning trough well below the overnight peak of $327.21/MWh recorded around 14:00 AEST. The 24-hour price history tells a sharp story: prices surged from the $100–200/MWh range through the early hours (12:00–16:00 AEST) as demand climbed and wind eased, before collapsing from the late afternoon onwards as wind output recovered and demand fell. The weighted average across the overnight period was materially above the current level, underlining how dramatically conditions have shifted since the pre-dawn high-price window.

Wind is doing the bulk of the work in the current generation mix, contributing **1,323 MW** out of total scheduled generation of approximately **1,372 MW** — roughly **96%** of supply. Gas CCGT sits at **43 MW**, OCGT at a near-negligible **0.11 MW**, and battery dispatch at **5.3 MW**. Solar is at zero, consistent with 06:00 AEST in late May and 100% cloud cover. This wind-dominant profile has driven carbon intensity to just **0.0154 tCO2/MWh** — one of the lowest readings in the data set — with renewable penetration at **96.86%**. By contrast, during the morning demand ramp between 08:00–12:00 AEST, carbon intensity reached as high as **0.4806 tCO2/MWh** as gas generation was dispatched heavily to meet a 1,800+ MW demand peak; that window has now fully unwound.

Predispatch forecasts point to a moderate price lift through the coming trading periods. The 07:30 AEST half-hour (21:00 UTC) is forecast at **$49.02/MWh**, rising to **$73.13/MWh** for the 08:30 AEST half-hour (21:30 UTC) based on the most recent predispatch run. Consensus across the forecast series for the 08:30 window clusters in the **$71–$81/MWh** range, suggesting the market is pricing in rising demand as the Saturday morning ramp gets underway. With today's maximum temperature forecast at only **17°C** and full overcast conditions (95% cloud cover average), heating demand rather than solar self-supply will drive the shape. Wind potential is modest today (average 2.1 on a 0–10 scale), so the early evening period warrants watching for tighter conditions should wind ease further during the demand peak.

One active market notice is directly relevant today: AEMO has flagged a **Cisco ISE server maintenance outage from 10:00–17:00 AEST today** (CHG0110834), with SSL VPN participants potentially experiencing authentication delays — no generation or dispatch impact is expected, but market participants relying on SSL VPN connections should plan accordingly. A separate Gas Hub system outage is also scheduled for today (10:00–20:00 AEST, CHG0110523) covering the Gas Retail Initiatives B2B Package 1 schema cutover, relevant to gas-exposed participants managing fuel supply positions. There are no active SA-specific reserve or network constraint notices in effect, and the MT PASA published 19 May identified no low reserve conditions across the NEM.