Regional Outlook — QLD1: Friday 22 May 2026

The Queensland spot price sits at $82.50/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, with demand at 5,572 MW — well below the morning peak of 7,241 MW reached around 17:45 AEST earlier today. Reviewing the 24-hour price trajectory, Queensland opened the overnight period with sustained negative pricing from around 09:10 AEST through to roughly 15:30 AEST (UTC 23:10–01:30), with prices bottoming near -$3.20/MWh. The pre-dawn ramp then drove prices sharply higher, peaking at $133.71/MWh at 17:00 and 17:30 AEST during the morning demand surge, before easing back to the current $82.50/MWh as demand fell through the afternoon. The 24-hour volume-weighted average sits in the mid-$60s/MWh range, meaning the current price is running above the daily average as the grid settles into its Saturday evening profile.

The generation mix at 06:25 AEST is dominated by black coal at 4,364 MW, accounting for approximately 77% of dispatch. Wind is contributing 997 MW (roughly 17.5%), hydro 119 MW, gas OCGT 128 MW, battery 39 MW, and solar a negligible 0.15 MW — consistent with a post-sunset interval. Renewable penetration sits at 20.47% per the latest carbon data. Carbon intensity is 0.6947 tCO2/MWh, which is elevated compared to the overnight trough of around 0.44 tCO2/MWh recorded near 09:00–09:30 AEST when wind output was higher and black coal dispatch was lower to match reduced overnight demand. The day's carbon profile has tracked upward since the morning ramp-up, peaking near 0.76 tCO2/MWh in the 00:30–02:30 AEST window before moderating slightly into the evening.

Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST half-hour (21:00 UTC) show a consensus around $82.50–$92.57/MWh across successive forecast runs, with the most recent two runs (from 06:01 and 06:31 AEST) landing at $82.50/MWh. The 07:30 AEST (21:30 UTC) window is forecast at $74.20–$82.50/MWh per the latest runs, suggesting a modest softening as the Saturday evening load profile continues to ease. Load window data confirms excellent-quality low-price opportunities from 08:00 AEST onward through the overnight period, with prices forecast in the $-3.20 to $25/MWh range across the early hours of Sunday — consistent with the pattern seen in prior nights this week.

Two active market notices are directly relevant to QLD1 today. A non-conformance notice (144127) was issued for unit MPP_2, which deviated by 11 MW for the interval 20:55–21:05 AEST on 22 May under constraint NC-Q_MPP_2; this is a minor event with no material price impact. An AEMO market systems notice (144129, CHG0110834) flags planned maintenance to Cisco ISE servers today from 10:00–17:00 AEST, with