Commodity Demand — TAS1: Friday 22 May 2026
Tasmania's spot price sits at $106.16/MWh with demand at 1,057 MW as of 06:30 AEST — a modest level consistent with a Saturday morning pattern following the overnight trough. Demand bottomed around 02:50–03:00 AEST at approximately 1,026–1,040 MW, where prices softened to the $80–91/MWh range, and has been recovering gradually through the early morning. The price-demand relationship today is tight: the data shows prices cluster around $87–97/MWh when demand sits below roughly 1,050 MW, and step up to the $105–107/MWh band once demand crosses that threshold — a clear and consistent inflection point. The brief spike to $150/MWh seen in the overnight history (around 07:40–08:00 AEST UTC+10) coincided with demand pushing through 1,450 MW, illustrating how sharply Tasmania's price response steepens at the upper end of the demand range.
Today's demand trajectory follows a typical winter Saturday profile. Demand troughed overnight, has edged back through the 1,050 MW mark this morning, and is expected to build toward a late-afternoon/evening peak driven by residential heating — temperature is currently 6.8°C with 100% cloud cover and a heating demand index of 11.2. The daily maximum of 16.2°C provides limited warming relief, and zero solar potential across the day removes any midday demand offset. Based on the overnight history where demand reached 1,450 MW during the peak period, a comparable evening peak today — likely between 18:00 and 21:00 AEST — would push prices back toward the $105–115/MWh range. Forecasts for the 07:00 AEST (21:00 UTC) interval are converging on $108.16/MWh from the most recent dispatch run, consistent with that expectation.
Generation currently sits at 925 MW hydro and 208 MW wind, covering total demand of 1,057 MW with the OCGT at zero output. With wind potential rated at 1.3 out of a possible maximum and near-zero solar, hydro is carrying the primary dispatch load. As demand rises toward the evening peak, the degree to which wind output holds up will influence whether OCGT is called upon and whether prices breach the $110–115/MWh range. Traders should note AEMO has scheduled a Cisco ISE server maintenance outage today from 10:00–17:00 AEST affecting SSL VPN connectivity — no market impact is expected, but participants relying on SSL VPN access should verify connectivity ahead of the evening trading window.