NEM Overview: Thursday 21 May 2026

NEM-wide spot prices sit in a tight $96–$135/MWh band as of 06:25 AEST, with NSW1 the highest at $134.89/MWh on 8,042 MW of demand, followed by VIC1 at $119.97/MWh and TAS1 at $105.47/MWh. SA1 and QLD1 are the softer end at $103.44/MWh and $96.07/MWh respectively. The $38.82/MWh spread between NSW1 and QLD1 is notable given the NSW1–QLD1 interconnector is binding at its import limit of -590 MW — Queensland is exporting its full available capacity into NSW but the constraint is preventing further relief to NSW prices. VIC1 is exporting 479 MW north into NSW via the VIC1–NSW1 link, which remains well within limits. Murraylink (V-S-MNSP1) is showing zero flow, consistent with the earlier unplanned outage notice that has been active since 17 May; the I-ML_ZERO constraint set remains in play and is effectively isolating that SA–VIC DC link.

NEM-wide renewable penetration sits at 37.8% on the gridIQ score. At the region level, Tasmania is operating at 100% renewable with 1,284 MW of hydro and 28 MW of wind covering its 1,280 MW demand. SA is at 57.3% renewable, with wind at 756 MW dominating a 1,443 MW demand profile; gas OCGT (195 MW) and gas CCGT (368 MW) are filling the gap with solar near-zero at this evening hour. Queensland's wind output is a strong 1,009 MW alongside 769 MW of battery dispatch — the highest battery contribution across any region right now — supplementing 4,714 MW of black coal. NSW carries 692 MW of wind, 1,178 MW of hydro, 150 MW of battery and 145 MW of solar (fading), with 5,631 MW of black coal as the primary source. Victoria's generation is dominated by 4,612 MW of brown coal, with wind at 571 MW and gas OCGT at 558 MW; carbon intensity is the highest in the NEM at 1.0109 tCO2/MWh against a NEM grid stress score of 78.7 — elevated but not critical.

The key operational notice for today is the South Morang F2 500/330 kV transformer outage in Victoria, scheduled through to 17:00 AEST today (22 May). Constraint set V-SMTX_F_R remains active and is binding on interconnectors T-V-MNSP1, V-SA, VIC1-NSW1 and V-S-MNSP1. Basslink (T-V-MNSP1) is currently at zero flow despite a 125 MW export limit, likely a commercial or operational decision under the constrained Victorian network. Traders should watch the South Morang outage return to service this afternoon — restoration by 17:00 AEST coincides with the evening demand ramp and could shift Victorian interconnector headroom meaningfully. The MT PASA published 19 May identifies no low reserve conditions across the outlook period, and the QLD LOR events from 17–19 May have all been resolved and cancelled.

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