Commodity Demand — QLD1: Friday 18 September 2026
Queensland demand sits at 5,496 MW as of 06:30 AEST, with the spot price at $64.83/MWh, down from the overnight evening peak of $99.75/MWh at 19:00 and well off yesterday's evening peak of $85.25/MWh near 6,270 MW. The overnight trough saw demand fall to 3,616 MW around 13:00 AEST (03:00 UTC), coinciding with prices sitting in negative territory between -$4 and -$6/MWh for close to seven consecutive hours — a pattern consistent with high overnight renewable output and minimal underlying load.
The demand-price relationship today is tight and predictable across the observed range: every 500 MW step up in demand from the 3,600–7,200 MW band adds roughly $15-25/MWh to the spot price, with the steepest gradient occurring through the morning ramp. Demand climbed from 4,478 MW at 05:00 AEST to a daily peak of 7,218 MW by 08:15 AEST, and price responded almost linearly, moving from -$6/MWh to over $91.85/MWh in the same window as gas OCGT and coal generation ramped to cover the shortfall left by fading overnight wind. Current generation mix shows black coal supplying 4,778 MW against a total of roughly 5,639 MW dispatched, with wind at 354 MW and solar starting to contribute only 211 MW given 97% cloud cover this morning.
AEMO's forecast trajectory points to prices holding in the $80-87/MWh band through the middle of today, with forecast RRP flat around $85/MWh from 08:00 through 14:00 AEST before easing to the $72-80/MWh range into the evening. This suggests demand is expected to plateau near the 6,700-7,200 MW level seen this morning rather than push materially higher, consistent with today's forecast top of 29.8°C and only moderate cooling demand expected. The evening price spikes we're seeing now (peaks to $113.18/MWh at 14:25 UTC and $102.36/MWh at 18:30 UTC) reflect brief supply-demand tightness rather than sustained stress, with demand oscillating in a narrow 5,400-5,700 MW band through the evening period.
No QLD-specific demand-side notices are in effect today; the active market notices relate to SA voltage support directions and a forecast Minimum System Load event in SA for 19 September, plus a completed QLD network augmentation (Broadsound-Glencoe-Nebo 275kV line) that improves regional transfer capability but has no immediate demand implication. Grid stress score sits at 74 and renewable penetration in QLD's mix has fallen to 13.5% as coal generation dominates the current interval, with carbon intensity at 0.757 tCO2/MWh — near the day's high as overnight wind contribution tapers off ahead of any meaningful solar ramp.