Regional Outlook — NSW1: Wednesday 16 September 2026
NSW spot price sits at $96.99/MWh as at 06:30 AEST, tracking within its overnight band after swinging from negative territory (-$6.58/MWh) in the early hours to a morning peak of $129.65/MWh around 08:15-08:20 AEST. Demand has climbed to 8,368 MW, up sharply from the overnight trough of 4,157 MW recorded around 03:00 AEST, consistent with the typical morning ramp. The 24-hour trend shows the classic overnight price collapse into negative pricing between 21:15 and 06:00 AEST as demand fell below 5,000 MW, followed by a sharp climb once demand recovery outpaced renewable output through the morning peak.
Generation mix at the current interval is led by black coal at 5,476 MW, followed by wind at 853 MW, hydro at 848 MW, solar at 411 MW, battery discharge at 129 MW, and gas OCGT contributing a marginal 21 MW. Renewable penetration sits at 28.95%, down from overnight highs above 60% when demand was low and wind generation covered a larger share of a smaller total load. Carbon intensity is currently 0.6246 tCO2/MWh, elevated from the overnight low of 0.34 tCO2/MWh recorded around 00:30-00:45 AEST, reflecting coal's larger share of the mix as renewable output has not kept pace with the demand ramp.
Predispatch forecasts point to a firming trajectory through the day: prices are expected to ease briefly to around $42-65/MWh through the 07:00-07:30 AEST window before climbing steadily to a forecast peak near $129.65/MWh around 09:30-10:00 AEST, holding in the $110-130/MWh band through midday before easing back to the high $80s/MWh by early evening (18:00 AEST forecast at $86.28/MWh). Overnight tonight, forecasts show prices returning to negative territory from 23:00 AEST, bottoming around -$8.01/MWh near 03:30 AEST — consistent with the identified low-carbon, negative-price load-shifting windows between 01:30 and 07:00 AEST tomorrow, offering savings of $130-137/MWh versus daytime peak rates.
No NSW-specific market interventions are active today. Notices affecting the broader NEM include ongoing foreseeable AEMO intervention risk in SA for voltage support from 00:30 AEST, and a forecast Minimum System Load (MSL1) condition in SA on 19 September. One NSW-specific item of note: the Eraring–Newcastle 90 330kV line outage completed on 14 September with its associated constraint set revoked, removing that transfer limitation from the network. Weather today shows moderate cloud cover (48%) and light wind (13.9 km/h) at present, with solar potential improving into the afternoon and average wind potential remaining subdued at 3.0 for the day — a factor to watch given today's renewable share has already retreated from overnight highs.