Regional Outlook — NSW1: Saturday 12 September 2026
NSW spot price sits at $42.45/MWh at 06:30 AEST, down from the overnight peak of $90.50/MWh seen around 06:35 AEST yesterday evening, and well below the $87-90/MWh band that persisted through the 16:00-19:00 AEST demand peak yesterday. Demand currently reads 6,548 MW, off the daily high of 8,357 MW recorded mid-morning yesterday. Prices have been volatile overnight, swinging from near-zero and negative territory in the 07:00-14:00 AEST low-demand window up to the $80-90/MWh range during the two evening peaks — typical for a mild mid-September Sunday with modest heating load (6.1 heating demand units currently) and negligible cooling demand.
Generation mix at the current interval is dominated by black coal at 4,392 MW, supplying the bulk of the 5,224 MW total. Wind contributes 324 MW, battery storage 244 MW, hydro 119 MW, solar just 95 MW (reflecting the overnight/early-morning window with 0% solar potential currently), and gas OCGT a modest 49 MW, with gas CCGT offline. Renewable penetration sits at 14.98%, translating to a carbon intensity of 0.746 tCO2/MWh — near the high end of today's range. This compares with overnight lows of 0.324-0.335 tCO2/MWh when renewable penetration peaked above 60% between 00:00-04:00 AEST, driven by strong wind output and battery discharge into the evening peak. The carbon intensity trend has climbed steadily since sunrise as solar generation remains negligible and coal has picked up the difference.
Predispatch forecasts show prices diving into negative territory from 07:00 AEST through to around 16:00 AEST, with troughs near -$18.51/MWh expected around 13:00 AEST — consistent with the load-shifting windows flagged for NSW, where AEMO forecasts show best value between 11:00-15:00 AEST offering savings of $87-95/MWh versus peak pricing. Prices are then forecast to recover sharply from 16:30 AEST (~$42.80/MWh) climbing to $74-80/MWh by 17:30-18:30 AEST as the evening demand ramp kicks in, before stabilising in the mid-$60s to mid-$70s/MWh range through the following morning.
On notices, there is no NSW-specific market intervention currently active, though several settlements residue notices affecting the NSW-VIC interconnector were issued and cancelled over the past two days (NRM_NSW1_VIC1 constraint operated intermittently between 10-11 September). The bulk of active AEMO intervention activity is concentrated in SA, with a live direction to a SA participant issued at 18:59 AEST yesterday and a foreseeable intervention flagged for SA voltage control from 08:30 AEST today — these do not directly affect NSW dispatch but warrant monitoring given interconnector flow implications. Traders should also note the Basslink control issue notice was resolved as of 11 September, removing that constraint from Victorian-linked interconnector flows relevant to NSW-VIC trade.