Regional Outlook — NSW1: Friday 11 September 2026
NSW spot price sits at $96.99/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, tracking near the middle of an overnight range that swung from $122.86/MWh during the 17:50-17:55 evening peak down to $0/MWh across several 5-minute intervals near 15:35-15:40 AEST yesterday. Demand currently reads 7,129 MW, well below yesterday's peak of 9,061 MW recorded around 18:55 AEST. Prices have been broadly volatile through the 24-hour window, oscillating between single digits overnight (04:45-05:40 AEST saw multiple $0-$25/MWh prints) and triple digits during the 07:00-09:00 AEST morning ramp, when prices held above $100/MWh for roughly two hours as demand climbed sharply.
Generation mix at 20:25 (prior day trading data) shows black coal dominant at 5,226 MW, followed by wind at 760 MW, hydro at 615 MW, battery storage at 281 MW, solar at 145 MW, and gas OCGT contributing a modest 45 MW, with CCGT sitting idle at 0 MW. Renewable penetration is currently 25.47%, and carbon intensity reads 0.6544 tCO2/MWh — both figures reflecting the overnight/early morning window where solar output is negligible and wind is contributing but not dominant. This compares to a much cleaner window between 03:30-05:00 AEST overnight, where renewable penetration peaked near 60% and carbon intensity dropped to a low of 0.347 tCO2/MWh as wind and hydro carried a larger share of load with minimal demand.
Predispatch forecasts show prices easing sharply through the middle of the day: from $83.99/MWh at 07:00 AEST, prices are forecast to fall into negative territory between roughly 10:00 AEST and 15:30 AEST, with troughs near -$7.35/MWh around 11:30 AEST, before recovering through the afternoon to $75.96-$78.82/MWh by 16:00-17:30 AEST and easing slightly to $70.96/MWh by 18:00 AEST. This pattern aligns with the load-shifting windows flagged for today, with the cheapest low-carbon slots identified between 10:00-15:30 AEST offering savings of $100-104/MWh versus peak pricing — driven largely by moderate solar potential (30.3% average) and cool temperatures (10.8-19.6°C range) suppressing both heating and cooling demand.
On notices, NSW itself has no direct active interventions today, but the region remains indirectly affected by ongoing SA voltage-support directions to AGL's Torrens Island units, which are influencing interconnector flows and settlement residues. A NSW-VIC negative settlement residue constraint (NRM_NSW1_VIC1) was active for several hours yesterday afternoon before being cancelled at 16:00 AEST, reflecting periods of negative interconnector pricing consistent with the low-demand troughs seen in the price history. No non-conformance or reserve notices are currently flagged specifically for NSW1.