Regional Outlook — NSW1: Thursday 10 September 2026
NSW spot price sits at $109.10/MWh as at 06:30 AEST, tracking above the overnight average after climbing from a low of $0.01/MWh around 13:20 AEST yesterday to a peak near $122.86/MWh through the 18:00-19:00 AEST evening ramp. Demand currently reads 8,274 MW, down from yesterday's evening peak of 9,617 MW but rebuilding as the morning ramp gets underway. Prices have been volatile over the past 24 hours, swinging from single digits overnight to above $120/MWh during the evening peak — a pattern consistent with tightening reserve margins as solar output faded into the 18:00-20:00 AEST window.
Generation mix currently shows black coal dominant at 5,279.9 MW, followed by hydro at 914.6 MW, wind at 835.0 MW, batteries discharging at 512.7 MW, solar at 113.3 MW, and gas OCGT contributing a modest 46.5 MW, with gas CCGT offline. Renewable penetration sits at 30.84%, recovering from a midday low of 19.6% around 17:30 AEST as wind and hydro pick up into the evening. Carbon intensity reads 0.6072 tCO2/MWh, down from a peak of 0.7061 tCO2/MWh at 16:30 AEST but still elevated relative to the overnight trough of 0.3919 tCO2/MWh recorded around 01:55 AEST when renewable share topped 55%.
Predispatch forecasts point to a steep price fall through this evening, with the 22:00-23:30 AEST window forecast near $25/MWh and a sharp trough overnight — forecast RRP touches $0/MWh at 03:30 AEST and stays near single digits through to 05:00 AEST, reflecting strong overnight renewable and hydro output plus soft demand. Prices are then forecast to rebuild sharply from the 07:00 AEST morning ramp, reaching $113.49/MWh by 08:00 AEST and holding in the $104-119/MWh band through the day, with a forecast peak of $119/MWh around 12:30 and 13:30 AEST before easing into the evening. Traders should note the identified load-shifting windows: the 00:30-04:30 AEST period offers sub-$20/MWh pricing with material savings versus the daytime peak.
On notices, AEMO cancelled the NSW-VIC negative settlement residue constraint (NRM_NSW1_VIC1) at 17:20 AEST yesterday after it had been active since 14:00 AEST, indicating interconnector flow conditions have normalised. A reclassified credible contingency event on the Bayswater-Mt Piper 500kV lines due to lightning was raised and subsequently cancelled on 5 September, with no current NSW-specific contingency events active. No LOR notices or market interventions are currently active for NSW1; recent intervention activity has been concentrated in SA1 relating to voltage control at Torrens Island.