Regional Outlook — NSW1: Monday 7 September 2026
NSW spot price sits at $85.86/MWh at 06:30 AEST, easing back after a sharp morning peak that saw prices spike to $147.96/MWh around 18:00 AEST yesterday evening as demand climbed to 8,933 MW. Demand currently sits at 7,894 MW and prices have moderated through the evening from that peak, tracking a familiar pattern of overnight troughs (prices dipped negative to -$3.23/MWh around 11:00 AEST) followed by a steep morning ramp as demand builds.
Generation mix currently shows black coal dominating supply at 5,275 MW, followed by wind at 1,174 MW, hydro at 862 MW, battery storage contributing 498 MW, gas OCGT at 46 MW, and solar tapering to 57 MW as the evening sets in. Renewable penetration sits at 32.75%, up from a low of around 17.7% during yesterday's mid-afternoon demand peak, reflecting wind generation picking up through the evening period. Carbon intensity reads 0.5904 tCO2/MWh, down from a daily high near 0.72 tCO2/MWh in the mid-afternoon — the inverse relationship between renewable share and carbon intensity is clear across the day's data, with intensity troughing near 0.32 tCO2/MWh overnight when renewables peaked above 63%.
Predispatch forecasts point to prices easing further overnight, with troughs near $11-13/MWh expected between 10:00 and 14:30 AEST tonight (low demand, high renewable share), before climbing again through tomorrow morning. The forecast shows a sharp ramp from $25/MWh at 16:00 AEST tomorrow to $113.50/MWh by 19:00 AEST as morning demand builds, mirroring today's pattern. Traders should note the identified low-price window between 12:00-14:30 AEST tonight, averaging $12-17/MWh, offering the best load-shifting opportunity with minimal carbon impact given near-zero intensity forecast.
On notices, NSW-specific items are limited to network matters: the Dapto-Kangaroo Valley 330kV line outage completed and returned to service, and a brief NSW non-conformance event on unit WTAHB1 (-18 MW) has cleared. NSW also had a credible contingency reclassification on the Bayswater-Mt Piper 500kV lines due to lightning risk, since cancelled. The more material system-wide watchpoint is the cancelled VIC LOR1 (Lack of Reserve) notice for tomorrow's 07:00-07:30 AEST window — reserve margins there were tight (1,025 MW available against 1,155 MW requirement) but AEMO has withdrawn the forecast condition. No active reserve or intervention notices currently apply to NSW.