Regional Outlook — NSW1: Tuesday 15 September 2026
NSW spot price sits at $103.91/MWh as of 6:30am AEST, up sharply from overnight lows that touched negative territory (-$10.10/MWh around 12:45pm AEST yesterday during minimum demand). The region has swung through a wide band over the past 24 hours — from sub-zero prices near midnight through to a peak of $114.54/MWh at 6:20am — reflecting the typical overnight demand trough followed by the morning ramp. Demand currently sits at 7,767 MW, up from an overnight low near 4,300 MW.
Generation mix at the current interval is led by black coal at 5,178 MW, followed by wind at 873 MW, hydro at 661 MW, battery output at 428 MW, solar at 345 MW, and gas OCGT contributing a modest 35 MW. Renewable penetration reads 30.68%, having climbed from a 24-hour low near 18.5% during yesterday's evening peak (around 6pm AEST) to a high of 61.2% overnight when wind and hydro dominated a lower-demand system. Carbon intensity currently stands at 0.609 tCO2/MWh, down from the evening peak of 0.716 tCO2/MWh but well above the overnight low of 0.341 tCO2/MWh — the pattern tracks demand and coal's share as solar drops away in the evening.
Predispatch forecasts point to a firming price trajectory through today. AEMO's latest run shows prices holding negative through the early morning hours (as low as -$8.63/MWh around 4:30am AEST) before a sharp rally from 7am, reaching $136.58/MWh by 8am and peaking at $151.38/MWh around 10:30am AEST. Prices are forecast to ease gradually through the afternoon, sitting near $84-93/MWh into the evening. Traders should note the steep morning ramp — a near $160/MWh swing in three hours — consistent with the demand ramp overtaking rooftop solar output before midday.
No NSW-specific market interventions or contingency reclassifications are active today; recent notices are concentrated in SA (voltage-related directions to Torrens Island and a forecast minimum system load event for 19 September) and TAS (lightning-related contingency reclassifications, both since cancelled). The most recent NSW-specific notice was the completed Eraring-Newcastle 330kV line outage, which returned to service on 14 September with no ongoing constraint. Grid stress score for the region reads 86.1, reflecting the wide demand and price swings over the past day, while the market conditions score sits at 56.8.