Regional Outlook — NSW1: Sunday 13 September 2026
NSW spot price sits at $56.80/MWh at 06:30 AEST, easing back after an evening peak that touched $82.90/MWh around 15:45 AEST and a sustained morning band of $71-80/MWh through the 17:00-20:00 AEST commuter peak. Demand currently reads 7,277 MW, off its 8,527 MW peak recorded around 18:45 AEST. Overnight prices were persistently negative, bottoming near -$10.50/MWh between 11:00 and 13:00 AEST as demand fell below 3,500 MW — a reminder of how quickly NSW flips from oversupply to scarcity pricing across a single day.
Generation mix at the current interval: black coal leads at 4,675 MW, wind contributes 1,121 MW, battery output sits at 548 MW, hydro at 315 MW, solar at 131 MW, and gas OCGT a marginal 51 MW, with CCGT offline. Renewable penetration reads 30.9%, and carbon intensity sits at 0.6063 tCO2/MWh — both figures reflecting the current evening period where solar has dropped off and wind is providing the bulk of renewable output. Across the day, renewable share and carbon intensity moved inversely as expected: renewables peaked near 59% overnight (carbon intensity down to 0.358 tCO2/MWh around 23:00-23:30 AEST) and troughed near 17-18% in the early afternoon (carbon intensity up to 0.72-0.73 tCO2/MWh between 13:00 and 16:00 AEST) as coal and gas covered the midday demand ramp with limited solar contribution.
Predispatch forecasts point to a steep price climb into tomorrow's morning peak: prices ease to near zero and negative territory overnight (-$8 to -$4/MWh from 23:30 AEST through 05:30 AEST tomorrow), then surge to $76-95/MWh through the 07:00-13:00 AEST window on 14 September, peaking near $95.20/MWh at 08:30 AEST. Prices then settle into a $76-84/MWh band through the afternoon before easing toward $65.73/MWh by 18:00 AEST. This overnight trough presents clear least-cost load-shifting windows — AEMO-modelled opportunities show savings of $93-145/MWh versus peak rates between 01:00 and 06:30 AEST tomorrow.
No active market notices directly target NSW today; the bulk of current AEMO interventions, directions, and minimum system load advisories concern SA (voltage control directions to Torrens Island units, and a forecast MSL1 condition on 19 September). NSW does carry a residual note from the 11 September negative settlement residue constraint on the NSW-VIC interconnector, now ceased. Weather across NSW today shows a cool start (11.9°C, light 4.8 km/h winds) building to a top of 26.4°C, with modest solar potential (21.8% average) and low wind potential (3.2% average) — conditions that support a firming later-week wind contribution, with wind potential lifting to 20.4% by 16 September.