Load Advisor: Sunday 13 September 2026
Overnight prices sit near zero to negative across NSW1, QLD1, and VIC1, with the deepest trough between 07:00-16:30 AEST as overnight demand stays low and minimum system load conditions hold. NSW1 is currently at $56.80/MWh and QLD1 at $54.50/MWh, but predispatch forecasts show both regions collapsing to between -$8 and $10/MWh through the 09:00-16:30 AEST window (targets 22:00-06:30 UTC), driven by low overnight demand rather than solar — cloud cover is heavy in VIC1 (91%) and SA1 (88%), so this is a demand-driven trough, not a solar duck curve.
The best NEM-wide shifting window is 09:30-16:00 AEST. NSW1 troughs hardest around 13:00-15:30 AEST at -$7 to -$9/MWh, QLD1 sits at -$5 to -$8/MWh from 13:00-15:30 AEST, and VIC1 holds $10-11/MWh from 12:00-16:00 AEST. TAS1 offers a shallower but consistent trough near $10-11/MWh across the same period. SA1 is the outlier: its overnight window is similarly cheap ($10-16/MWh from 09:30-16:00 AEST), but forecast prices spike hard to $143.15/MWh from 17:00-22:00 AEST as low wind potential (1.3-2.4%) and cloud cover (69-88%) constrain renewable supply — SA1 flexible load should be locked in before 16:30 AEST and avoided entirely through the evening peak.
Peak periods to avoid nationally fall between 17:00-20:30 AEST, when NSW1 climbs to $83-95/MWh, VIC1 to $88-90/MWh, QLD1 to $88-93/MWh, and TAS1 to $78-81/MWh as the evening ramp coincides with the solar fade-off. SA1's peak is by far the sharpest and longest, running 17:00-22:30 AEST at a flat $143.15/MWh — a premium of over $130/MWh versus its midday trough.
Recommendation: schedule all deferrable load (batch industrial processes, EV charging, water heating, pumped hydro fill) for the 09:30-16:00 AEST window nationally, with SA1 loads prioritised earliest in that window given its sharp afternoon price escalation. Avoid all discretionary load between 17:00-20:30 AEST across NSW1, VIC1, QLD1, and TAS1, and extend that avoidance to 22:30 AEST specifically in SA1.