Load Advisor: Thursday 10 September 2026
Prices sit at $88-109/MWh across mainland regions this evening, but predispatch forecasts point to a deep overnight trough between 10:30pm tonight and 6:30am AEST, with a sharp price spike building from 7:30am as morning demand returns. The overnight window is the clear target for shifting flexible load — every region prices below $25/MWh for at least four consecutive hours, and several turn negative.
VIC1 and SA1 offer the strongest savings. VIC1 prices run negative from around 11:30pm through to 5:00am, bottoming near -$7.50/MWh at 1:00-1:30pm target windows overnight, with savings of up to $125/MWh versus this evening's peak. SA1 is similarly attractive, troughing at -$15.43/MWh around 1:30pm AEST equivalent (03:30 UTC), a saving of roughly $124/MWh vs peak — driven by strong overnight wind and minimal demand. NSW1, QLD1 and TAS1 also fall to single-digit or sub-$10/MWh levels between 1:00am and 5:00am, though NSW1 and QLD1 troughs are shorter and flagged as higher-risk given tighter margins either side.
Regions should avoid scheduling flexible load during two peak windows today: the current evening peak (now through to roughly 10:00pm AEST, with NSW1 at $109/MWh and VIC1 at $101/MWh) and tomorrow morning's ramp, where all regions climb back above $100/MWh by 8:00-9:00am and hold there through the afternoon shoulder (NSW1 forecast at $119/MWh around 12:30-1:30pm, VIC1 similar). QLD1 and TAS1 show a comparable but slightly lower morning peak near $105-113/MWh.
Recommendation: schedule discretionary and shiftable load — EV charging, battery charging, industrial process loads, water heating — for the 11:00pm to 5:30am AEST window, with VIC1 and SA1 offering the deepest discounts and best carbon-free conditions given elevated overnight wind generation. Avoid dispatch during 7:30am-2:00pm AEST across all regions, when forecast prices exceed $100/MWh and peak toward $115-119/MWh in NSW1 and VIC1. Battery operators should target charging in the trough and discharge into the 8:00am-1:00pm peak to capture the full $100+/MWh spread.