Load Advisor: Tuesday 8 September 2026
NEM-wide conditions currently favour overnight load shifting, with all five mainland regions sitting in negative or near-zero pricing territory into the early hours of 9 September. Victoria and South Australia are showing the deepest discounts, with VIC1 predispatch prices falling to -$44.84/MWh at 15:00 AEST (target 05:00 UTC) and SA1 reaching -$45.37/MWh at the same time, driven by strong overnight wind generation (VIC1 wind potential 17.1%, SA1 10.7% currently, both with limited overnight demand to absorb output). NSW1 and QLD1 are also negative through the 10:00 pm-1:00 pm AEST overnight block, bottoming near -$3/MWh, while TAS1 offers smaller but consistent savings around -$5 to -$8/MWh in the same window.
The best load-shifting opportunity nationally sits between 12:30 pm and 3:30 pm AEST (02:30-05:30 UTC), when VIC1 and SA1 prices will trough simultaneously at -$30 to -$45/MWh, giving a saving of $108-115/MWh versus this evening's peak. NSW1 and QLD1 will bottom slightly earlier, between 10:00 am and 1:00 pm AEST, at -$2 to -$3/MWh, still delivering savings of $90-97/MWh versus peak. Flexible loads that can run for 2-3 hours — EV charging, pumped hydro filling, industrial process loads, battery charging — should target the 10:00 am-3:30 pm AEST block to capture the deepest discounts across the largest number of regions concurrently.
Peak periods to avoid will emerge from 6:00 pm AEST onward as overnight solar drops out and evening demand builds. NSW1 forecast prices will climb from $84/MWh at 6:00 pm AEST to $108.74/MWh by 8:00 pm AEST, the sharpest ramp of any region. QLD1 will follow a similar path, rising from $63/MWh at 6:00 pm AEST to $93.73/MWh by 8:00 pm AEST and holding near $90-96/MWh through the morning block tomorrow. VIC1 and SA1 peaks are comparatively muted, topping out near $75/MWh mid-morning, reflecting continued wind contribution keeping prices lower than the northern regions. TAS1 prices stay comparatively flat throughout, ranging $40-68/MWh with no sharp peak, making it the lowest-priority region for aggressive load shifting today.
Recommendation: schedule discretionary and shiftable load for the 10:00 am-3:30 pm AEST window today, prioritising VIC1 and SA1 assets first given the largest absolute savings ($108-115/MWh vs peak), followed by NSW1 and QLD1 loads in the 10:00 am-1:00 pm AEST sub-window. Avoid running flexible load in NSW1 and QLD1 between 6:00 pm and 9:00 am AEST tomorrow, where prices will sit consistently above $80/MWh and peak near $109/MWh in NSW1 around 8:00 pm AEST tonight.