Load Advisor: Saturday 5 September 2026

Overnight prices across the NEM sit deep in negative territory right now, with NSW1, VIC1, QLD1 and TAS1 all forecasting sub-zero RRPs through until roughly 06:00-06:30 AEST. QLD1 offers the deepest and longest window, holding between -$11/MWh and -$4/MWh from 08:00 through to 14:30 AEST (04:00-06:30 UTC on the source data), while NSW1 and VIC1 are similarly flat around -$6 to -$3/MWh from 10:00 to 15:00 AEST. Flexible load shifted into these windows captures $105-$128/MWh in savings versus today's peak, with zero carbon intensity recorded against these low-price periods.

SA1 presents the standout opportunity but with a tighter and riskier window: prices dip to -$2/MWh to $9/MWh between roughly 12:30 and 15:30 AEST before snapping sharply higher, hitting $121-$126/MWh by 21:30-22:00 AEST as the region's low wind potential (0.5-0.8 wind index) limits renewable offset heading into the evening peak. That SA1 morning window carries "high" risk flagging in the advisory data given the rapid price reversal either side of it — operators should favour the 15:00-16:00 AEST slot (avg -$2/MWh, "low" risk) over the earlier 14:00 AEST window if forecast volatility is a concern.

All five regions show a consistent afternoon-to-evening price ramp, climbing from sub-$20/MWh troughs to $95-$127/MWh by 16:00-22:00 AEST as demand builds and solar generation fades — NSW1 and VIC1 forecasts show RRPs holding above $95/MWh from roughly 16:00 through 21:00 AEST, with SA1 peaking hardest near $126/MWh around 20:00 AEST. Cloud cover today (55-62% in VIC1 and SA1) is capping solar potential across the southern regions, reinforcing the afternoon price climb as rooftop and grid-scale solar contribute less than usual.

Recommendation: schedule all deferrable load — EV charging, water heating, industrial process loads, battery charging — into the 22:00-15:00 AEST window (spanning overnight through early afternoon), prioritising QLD1 and NSW1 for the widest low-risk margins and reserving any SA1 shifting for before 15:30 AEST given its steep post-window price escalation. Avoid scheduling flexible load in any region between 16:00 and 22:00 AEST today, where forecast RRPs sit 4-10x higher than the overnight trough across all five regions.