Load Advisor: Thursday 3 September 2026
NEM-wide overnight prices are deeply negative across NSW, Victoria, South Australia and Queensland, with Tasmania trailing into positive but still low territory. NSW1 currently trades at $293.79/MWh into this evening's peak, but predispatch shows a sharp collapse through the overnight trough, with prices reaching -$9.33/MWh around 12:00-12:30 AEST. VIC1, SA1 and QLD1 follow the same pattern, all printing between -$5 and -$9/MWh in the 11:00-16:00 AEST window (overnight AEST, corresponding to the 01:00-06:00 UTC block). This is the primary load-shifting opportunity today: shifting 1 MW of flexible load into these windows saves $230-$270/MWh versus current peak pricing in NSW, VIC and QLD, and roughly $200/MWh in SA.
The best consolidated window for NEM-wide flexible load is 11:00-16:00 AEST (overnight), when NSW, VIC, QLD and SA are all simultaneously negative or near-zero. Within that block, 12:00-13:00 AEST offers the deepest prices in NSW (-$9.33/MWh) and QLD (-$8.03/MWh), while SA's best pricing sits slightly later at 14:30-16:00 AEST (-$7.80 to -$4.59/MWh). VIC1 also shows a secondary opportunity this afternoon, with forecast prices dipping to -$6 to -$7/MWh between 01:00-04:00 AEST tomorrow (i.e. 15:00-18:00 UTC today), driven by strong rooftop and grid-scale solar output given clear skies and 33.7% average solar potential in NSW and comparable conditions in VIC. Tasmania is the outlier: no negative pricing is forecast today, with the cheapest window at 22:30-23:30 AEST ($1.44/MWh) carrying high risk given TAS1's tighter, hydro-driven price profile — flag this window as opportunistic only, not firm.
Peak periods to avoid load additions are 07:00-13:00 AEST across NSW, QLD and VIC, when forecast prices climb back to $70-$85/MWh on morning demand ramp, and this evening's 17:30-20:30 AEST window, where current spot prices are already elevated ($233-$294/MWh across NSW, VIC, QLD, TAS). SA1 and WA1 remain comparatively mild through peak periods ($80-90/MWh), offering more headroom for regions unable to fully shift load.
Recommendation: schedule all deferrable industrial, EV charging and battery charging load for the 11:00-16:00 AEST window today, prioritising NSW and QLD where savings exceed $225/MWh versus current peak pricing. Avoid scheduling in TAS1 outside the narrow 22:30-23:30 AEST slot, and treat that window as medium-confidence only given its high-risk classification. Batteries and other assets capable of arbitrage should target charging at the NSW/QLD trough and discharging into the 17:00-20:30 AEST peak, where spreads exceed $270/MWh.