Load Advisor: Tuesday 1 September 2026

NEM-wide overnight demand is currently priced negative-to-flat across most regions, with the deepest and longest low-price window running from roughly 06:00 to 15:00 AEST today — this is the primary load-shifting opportunity for traders and grid managers to action now.

NSW, QLD and VIC all show sustained sub-$10/MWh pricing through the early morning, with NSW and QLD troughing near -$9 to -$11/MWh between 10:00 and 14:30 AEST as overnight demand remains low and generation stays ample. VIC and TAS extend this further, holding at or near $0/MWh from roughly 14:00 to 16:30 AEST before dipping negative again into the evening (-$4 to -$7/MWh from 16:00 to 18:00 AEST) — a second, shorter window worth capturing for VIC, SA and TAS loads. SA stands out as the strongest savings opportunity on a $/MWh basis: forecast prices sit near $0/MWh from 14:00 to 15:30 AEST and swing to -$7/MWh by 17:30-18:30 AEST, delivering savings above $145/MWh against SA's evening peak — the largest differential of any region today.

All five mainland regions will tighten sharply into the evening peak. NSW is forecast to climb from near $0/MWh at 16:00 AEST to $119/MWh by 18:00 AEST; QLD, VIC and SA follow a similar trajectory, pushing into the $90-130/MWh band by 18:00-20:30 AEST as solar generation fades and evening demand builds. WA, outside the NEM, is already trading at $124.56/MWh and should be treated as a high-cost region for any flexible load today. Traders and DR aggregators should avoid dispatching flexible load between 17:00 and 21:00 AEST across NSW, VIC, QLD and SA, and instead target the 10:00-15:00 AEST window for bulk shifting, with a secondary opportunity in SA and TAS between 16:00 and 18:30 AEST for shorter-duration flexible assets.

Tomorrow's outlook: with NSW and QLD daytime solar potential forecast to ease slightly (cloud cover rising to 15-18% in NSW) and wind picking up modestly in SA and TAS later in the week, midday troughs will likely persist through Thursday and Friday, though SA's evening negative-price window may narrow as wind potential increases ahead of the weekend uplift forecast for 5 September.