Load Advisor: Friday 28 August 2026
NEM-wide predispatch data points to an overnight-into-early-morning shift window as today's clearest load-shifting opportunity, with prices across all five mainland regions and Tasmania falling into negative-to-single-digit $/MWh territory between roughly 10:00 AEST and 16:30 AEST overnight (00:00–06:30 AEST this morning). SA1 is showing the deepest and most consistent savings, with prices as low as -$6.47/MWh between 04:00-06:30 AEST, delivering up to $134/MWh in savings versus this evening's peak. VIC1 and NSW1 follow closely, both averaging -$3 to -$7/MWh across the 02:00-06:30 AEST band, saving in the order of $128-$132/MWh for VIC1 and $117-$126/MWh for NSW1. TAS1 and QLD1 also show negative pricing in the same window but with more volatility — QLD1's 23:30 AEST window and TAS1's 00:00 and 02:00 AEST windows carry a "high" risk flag despite attractive headline prices, reflecting forecast uncertainty this early in the predispatch run.
Today's peak to avoid sits firmly in the morning shoulder, from around 07:00 to 11:00 AEST, when forecast prices across NSW1, VIC1, SA1, QLD1 and TAS1 all climb back above $90-$125/MWh as overnight negative pricing unwinds and morning demand ramps up ahead of solar generation reaching full output. VIC1 and SA1 show the sharpest peaks, both forecast near $110-$128/MWh between 08:30 and 10:30 AEST. A secondary, flatter peak persists through the afternoon into early evening (12:00-18:00 AEST) at moderate levels of $60-$105/MWh across regions, tapering toward evening as demand eases.
For flexible load — EV charging, batch industrial processes, pumped hydro pumping, and battery charging — the recommended action is to concentrate consumption in the 01:00-06:30 AEST window today, prioritising SA1 and VIC1 for the largest arbitrage margins, with NSW1 a close third. Loads with strict scheduling constraints should target the 04:00-06:00 AEST sub-window specifically, where negative pricing is most consistent across all regions simultaneously, simplifying coordination for multi-region operations. Avoid dispatching flexible load into the 07:00-11:00 AEST peak, and where possible also trim consumption through the secondary afternoon peak; discharge any batteries charged overnight into this window to capture the spread, which exceeds $130/MWh in SA1 and VIC1.
Weather conditions reinforce this pattern: low current solar potential across all regions (cloud cover 35-92%) explains the currently elevated evening/overnight prices as solar generation drops away, while forecast improving conditions tomorrow (29 August) with rising solar potential in NSW1, SA1 and QLD1 should extend today's midday-to-afternoon low-price periods further into the shoulder seasons over coming days — a signal worth monitoring for extending shift windows beyond today's advisory.