Load Advisor: Thursday 27 August 2026
The overnight trough delivers the best NEM-wide load shifting window today, running roughly 10:30am to 2:30pm AEST (00:30–06:30 UTC), with NSW1 and QLD1 both dipping into negative pricing at -$2 to -$7/MWh through the small hours before dawn. SA1 and VIC1 hold flat around $10-14/MWh across the same window, while TAS1 sits higher at $25-28/MWh, still well below its evening peak. This trough is driven by minimal overnight demand meeting baseload generation, not renewables — solar potential is at 0% across all regions at present given the pre-dawn timing.
Prices right now sit at $82-101/MWh across regions (7:25am reading), and predispatch shows this evening's peak building sharply from 7:00am AEST as morning demand ramps: NSW1 climbs to $121/MWh by 6:00pm UTC-equivalent (~4:00pm AEST) and SA1 forecasts a $146/MWh spike around 9:30am AEST (11:30 UTC target). VIC1 and QLD1 follow similar trajectories, peaking near $140/MWh and $123/MWh respectively through mid-morning trade. Flexible load scheduled into these windows will pay 10-14x the overnight trough price, so industrial processes, EV charging, and pumped hydro fill should be locked into the pre-7am window and avoided entirely between 8:00am and 2:00pm AEST when forecast RRPs sit above $100/MWh in NSW1, VIC1, and SA1.
SA1 offers the strongest arbitrage today — a swing from $10/MWh overnight to $146/MWh by mid-morning, a spread exceeding $135/MWh. NSW1 and QLD1 show the deepest negative pricing (down to -$7/MWh), making them the most attractive regions for any load that can be pulled into the 1:00am-6:30am AEST band. TAS1's opportunity is comparatively modest, with savings versus peak capped near $114/MWh reflecting its smaller demand base and higher baseline pricing, and its trough window arrives slightly later, closer to 6:00am AEST, so operators there should target the tail end of the overnight period rather than the earliest hours.
Recommendation: shift all deferrable load — battery charging, water pumping, industrial batch processes, EV fleet charging — into the 1:00am to 6:30am AEST window across NSW1, VIC1, QLD1 and SA1, prioritising SA1 and QLD1 for maximum $/MWh savings. TAS1 operators should target 5:00am-6:30am AEST specifically. Avoid all four mainland regions' 8:00am-2:00pm AEST band today, where forecast prices exceed $100/MWh and peak near $140-146/MWh in VIC1 and SA1; loads that must run during business hours should be scheduled as early as operationally possible ahead of the 7:00am ramp to minimise exposure.