Load Advisor: Tuesday 25 August 2026
Wholesale prices sit in the $100-116/MWh range across all five mainland regions this morning, with SA1 currently the highest at $116.43/MWh and TAS1 the lowest at $99.77/MWh. Predispatch forecasts show a sharp overnight trough forming between 11:00 AEST and 16:30 AEST tonight (converting UTC target times), with prices collapsing to single digits and low teens across NSW1, VIC1, QLD1 and TAS1. This is the standout load-shifting window for today: NSW1 and QLD1 both forecast sub-$11/MWh around 15:30-16:00 AEST, VIC1 troughs near $10.50-12.50/MWh in the same window, and TAS1 bottoms at $10.99/MWh. SA1 is the exception — its overnight floor is shallower, forecast around $32-38/MWh in the 15:30-16:00 AEST band, still a strong saving but not as deep as the eastern states.
Flexible load should be scheduled between 15:00 and 16:30 AEST today, which captures the lowest-price hour in NSW1, VIC1, QLD1 and TAS1 simultaneously — a rare NEM-wide alignment. Secondary low-price windows sit either side of this trough, from roughly 11:00-12:30 AEST and 13:30-14:30 AEST, where prices ease into the $18-35/MWh range across most regions; these are useful fallback slots if the tightest window can't be used operationally.
Peak periods to avoid emerge sharply from mid-morning through early afternoon AEST (roughly 18:00-23:00 AEST forecast targets), when VIC1 and SA1 both spike hard — VIC1 climbs to $278-352/MWh and SA1 to $267-375/MWh, driven by tightening evening supply margins. TAS1 mirrors this with a $250-319/MWh band in the same window. NSW1 and QLD1 stay comparatively contained through this period, peaking near $113-129/MWh, making them the more forgiving regions if load can't be fully shifted out of business hours. Any load with flexibility to defer into the evening peak should be redirected into the overnight trough instead — the spread between the low ($10-38/MWh) and high ($250-375/MWh) windows today is the widest we've seen this week, and SA1 and VIC1 carry the greatest financial exposure for unshifted flexible load.
Weather adds context but isn't a major swing factor today: cloud cover is heavy across SA1 (98%) and QLD1 (95%) this morning, limiting rooftop solar contribution to the midday supply stack in those regions, while NSW1 and VIC1 see moderate cloud (24-30%). Wind potential is low NEM-wide (under 2% in most regions), reinforcing that today's price shape is being set by demand and dispatchable plant availability rather than renewable output swings.