Load Advisor: Wednesday 2 September 2026
Overnight-to-early-morning negative pricing across all five mainland and island regions presents the strongest load-shifting window of the day, running roughly from 00:30 to 07:00 AEST. NSW1, VIC1, SA1 and QLD1 predispatch data show sustained sub-zero prices through this period, with VIC1 and SA1 offering the deepest discounts — down to -$7.11/MWh and -$7.00/MWh respectively around 03:00-05:00 AEST. TAS1 prices sit slightly higher (flat around $19/MWh from 01:30-03:30 AEST) due to lower wind potential overnight, but still represent a significant discount versus today's peak.
Flexible load should be concentrated between 00:30 and 07:00 AEST, with the tightest window at 03:00-05:00 AEST when four of five regions are simultaneously in negative territory. SA1 offers the largest peak-to-trough saving today at up to $222/MWh, followed by VIC1 at up to $209/MWh, NSW1 at up to $165/MWh, QLD1 at up to $147/MWh, and TAS1 at up to $190/MWh. This overnight trough reflects minimal demand (SA1 at ~1,351 MW, TAS1 at ~1,105 MW) combined with must-run wind and baseload generation that has nowhere to go — not a supply shortfall.
Prices will turn sharply from 07:00 AEST as morning demand ramps and rooftop solar has yet to reach output, with NSW1 forecast to jump from $0/MWh at 06:30 to $81/MWh by 07:00 and $111/MWh by 08:00. VIC1 and SA1 will see steeper peaks, with SA1 forecast to reach $196/MWh by 09:30 and $215/MWh at midday, and VIC1 touching $202/MWh around 12:00 AEST — both driven by thin cloud-affected solar (SA1 avg solar potential only 9.9% today) and firming demand. QLD1's afternoon peak is comparatively moderate, topping out near $123/MWh at 09:00-09:30 AEST before easing. All regions should avoid scheduling flexible load between 07:00 and 18:00 AEST, particularly the 09:00-13:00 AEST window where SA1 and VIC1 prices peak above $150-215/MWh.
Recommendation: shift all deferrable industrial, EV charging, and battery-charging load into the 00:30-07:00 AEST window today, prioritising 03:00-05:00 AEST for maximum simultaneous coverage across NSW1, VIC1, SA1 and QLD1. SA1 and VIC1 offer the highest-value shifting opportunity given both trough depth and subsequent peak severity. TAS1 flexible load should target 00:30-01:00 AEST specifically, where prices sit near $0-3/MWh ahead of the mid-morning ramp to $165-184/MWh by 09:30-12:00 AEST.