Load Advisor: Saturday 12 September 2026
All five NEM regions are sitting in negative or near-zero pricing this morning, and predispatch confirms an extended overnight-to-early-morning window of sub-zero prices running through to around 06:00-06:30 AEST. NSW1 is at $42.45/MWh and QLD1 at $38.04/MWh currently, but VIC1, SA1 and TAS1 are already negative at -$5.00, -$4.53 and -$4.62/MWh respectively, with predispatch showing the trough deepens sharply overnight before all regions rebound into the $60-95/MWh range through mid-morning.
The strongest shifting opportunity is SA1, where predispatch prices fall as low as -$62.73/MWh around 12:00-12:30 AEST (overnight), with the window from 10:00-11:30 AEST offering an average of -$53.55/MWh and total savings near $220 vs peak for a 1.5-hour block. VIC1 shows a similarly deep trough, bottoming near -$68.41/MWh, with the 09:00-10:30 AEST block averaging -$66.15/MWh for $135/MWh in savings. NSW1, QLD1 and TAS1 offer shallower but still solid savings, in the $80-95/MWh range vs peak, concentrated between 09:00 and 15:00 AEST (overnight into pre-dawn). TAS1's window is flatter and more persistent, holding near -$15.01/MWh consistently from around 09:00 through 16:00 AEST, giving operators a wider, lower-risk shifting band even though the absolute saving is smaller than SA1 or VIC1.
Prices will climb sharply from around 16:30-17:30 AEST as solar generation tapers off, with NSW1, QLD1 and VIC1 all forecast to hit $65-80/MWh by 17:00-18:00 AEST and SA1 pushing toward $80-94/MWh into the evening peak. Cloud cover across VIC1 (96%) and SA1 (64%) this morning is suppressing local solar potential, but wholesale prices remain deeply negative regardless, driven by broader renewable output and low overnight demand — flexible loads should not wait for clearer skies to shift.
Recommendation: schedule flexible load (EV charging, battery charging, industrial process load, water heating) into the 09:00-15:00 AEST window today, prioritising SA1 and VIC1 first given the deepest negative pricing and largest dollar savings per MWh. NSW1 and QLD1 offer a tighter but reliable trough concentrated around 10:00-15:00 AEST. Avoid scheduling shiftable load into the 17:00-19:00 AEST evening ramp across all regions, where prices are forecast to be $50-95/MWh higher than the overnight trough. TAS1 operators can use a wider low-price band from 09:00-16:00 AEST if load flexibility windows need to be longer than one to two hours.